Shifting tides of Middle Eastern power: Iran’s strategic struggle

Foreign Affairs recently published an article examining the complex geopolitical struggle that has placed Iran at the center of many Middle Eastern conflicts.

As the region becomes increasingly embroiled in proxy wars, Iran’s military and political maneuvering, particularly under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ignited fierce debates about its future. From its support of Hezbollah in Lebanon to its covert influence in Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, Iran’s role as a key player in these conflicts is both a testament to its regional ambitions and a response to its perceived existential threats.

Iran’s long shadow

The article begins by noting that Iran’s influence extends far beyond its borders, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has supported numerous Shiite militias across the Middle East. Iran’s revolutionary ideology may have been the initial impetus for its regional policy, but over time, this has evolved into a broader national security strategy focused on countering the perceived threats from the U.S. and Israel. While many observers focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the article suggests that Tehran’s regional proxy network is just as critical to its defense posture, positioning Iran as a bulwark against encirclement by hostile powers.

The 2001 assertion by the IRGC that the Iran-Iraq war would shape Iran’s internal and external policies for decades is pivotal in understanding the regime’s mindset. This war, which took the lives of hundreds of thousands and strained Iran’s resources, forged a sense of unity and self-reliance. As the article explains, this experience of suffering at the hands of Iraq and its backers, including the U.S., has shaped Tehran’s relentless pursuit of strategic depth—both through proxy warfare and asymmetric military strategies such as the use of missiles and drones.

Pivot to proxy warfare

A central theme in the article is Iran’s use of proxy forces to extend its reach. Hezbollah, one of the most powerful non-state actors in the region, stands as a prime example of this strategy. What began as a response to Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon has evolved into an Iranian strategic tool used to assert influence over Lebanon’s politics. Meanwhile, Iran’s involvement in Syria has allowed it to not only support the Assad regime but also establish a permanent foothold along Israel’s northern border.

However, the piece doesn’t shy away from acknowledging the drawbacks of Iran’s foreign policy. Despite its many successes in gaining influence through proxy forces, this strategy has also exacerbated sectarian tensions across the region. Iran’s intervention in Yemen, where the Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia and disrupted global shipping in the Red Sea, is presented as both a military and diplomatic challenge. The article highlights that Iran’s support for these groups has led to a steady increase in violence, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and destabilizing the region even further.

Dilemma of nuclear question

At the heart of Iran’s foreign policy dilemma is the question of its nuclear program. The article deftly highlights the tension between pursuing nuclear capabilities for national security and the potentially catastrophic consequences of preemptive strikes by Israel and the U.S. As international pressure mounts, Iran’s leadership faces a critical decision: accept a nuclear deal that would limit its ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief, or continue down a path toward nuclear weapons, risking a devastating confrontation.

In conclusion, the article underscores the ongoing struggle within Iran’s leadership between revolutionary ideology and pragmatic national security concerns. Iran’s position in the Middle East is precarious, and while it has succeeded in expanding its influence, the future remains uncertain. The shifting dynamics, from the internal economic challenges facing the regime to the external threats from Israel and the U.S., suggest that Iran’s strategic vision will continue to evolve, potentially leading to even greater instability in the region.

By Vugar Khalilov