Siberian cold in winter plays into hands of Putin, says analysts

Across Europe, governments are scrambling to prevent energy rationing and blackouts this winter. Whether they succeed will depend in part on something they have no control over - the weather.

Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping for a cold winter or a prolonged period of freezing temperatures after cutting Russian gas exports to Europe in retaliation for EU support for Ukraine, France 24 reports.

Another cold season like 2010/2011 or a prolonged Artic blast like the "Beast from the East" which blew into western Europe from Siberia in 2018 could cause hardships that might weaken the EU resolve in supporting Ukraine.

"The energy weapon has one bullet in the chamber and he has just fired it," said Eliot A. Cohen, a war historian and security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

"Europeans will go through the worst of it this winter," he told AFP.

In many countries, households are being urged to turn down their thermostats and companies are being asked to find energy savings under EU plans to reduce gas consumption this winter by 15 per cent compared to average.

In recent months, European states have raced to fill up their strategic reserves, buying extra supplies at record prices from Algeria, Qatar, Norway and the United States among other global gas suppliers.

EU stocks are now almost full -- at around 90 per cent capacity -- providing a major safety cushion for consumers and businesses that rely on gas to heat their homes, offices and factories.

"Europe is well-placed to go through the winter under normal weather conditions," Alireza Nahvi, a research associate at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, told AFP in an email.