Simple reason why global dementia rates are on the rise

A recent study published in Nature Medicine predicts that by 2060, the number of patients with dementia will double, with the lifetime risk of developing the condition increasing significantly. While this projection raises concerns about caregiving resources and economic impact, it also reflects a success story—advancements in healthcare have extended lifespans, allowing more people to reach ages where dementia is more common.

Despite the rise in dementia cases, experts emphasize that individuals can take steps to reduce their risk, as an article by The National Geographics points out. Michael Fang, lead author of the study, highlights the potential for intervention to alter these projections. Historically, past estimates placed dementia lifetime risk between 14% and 23%, whereas the latest study suggests it may exceed 40%.

Part of this increase can be attributed to the study’s participant demographics, with about a quarter being Black, compared to 14% of the overall US population.

“There is extensive research showing that non-white individuals face a higher risk of developing dementia,” says Kristine Yaffe, a dementia researcher at the University of California, San Francisco.

In the US, this heightened risk is largely due to disparities in access to dementia-preventative resources, such as quality education, nutritious food, and safe spaces for physical activity, along with higher smoking rates. As a result, studies incorporating more racially diverse participants tend to project higher dementia rates than those based primarily on white populations. However, the composition of this study’s participants alone does not fully account for the increased risk estimates.

Aging remains the primary risk factor for dementia. According to Josef Coresh, senior author of the study, dementia prevalence rises dramatically with age—4% of Americans at 75 have dementia, compared to nearly 20% at 85. Improved healthcare has extended average life expectancy from 69 years for those born in the 1950s to nearly 80 years for those born in the 2010s. Women, who generally live longer than men, are more likely to develop dementia.

Encouragingly, the onset of dementia has been delayed for many individuals due to improved cardiovascular health, education, and lifestyle changes. Compared to 50 years ago, fewer 70- to 90-year-olds today develop dementia at the same ages. Key factors include lower smoking rates, better air quality, effective treatments for depression, and increased cognitive engagement through education and mental stimulation.

While genetics play a role—such as carrying the apoE gene associated with Alzheimer’s—many dementia risk factors are modifiable.

The Lancet Commission on Dementia recommends these actions across the life course to reduce the risk of suffering from dementia:

o   Ensure good quality education is available for all and encourage cognitively stimulating activities in midlife

o   Make hearing aids accessible for people with hearing loss and decrease harmful noise exposure

o   Treat depression effectively

o   Encourage use of helmets and head protection in contact sports and on bicycles

o   Encourage exercise

o   Reduce cigarette smoking

o   Prevent, reduce, and treat high blood pressure

o   Treat high cholesterol, especially during and after midlife

o   Maintain a healthy weight and treat obesity as early as possible, in part to help prevent diabetes

o   Reduce high alcohol consumption

o   Prioritize age-friendly and supportive community environments and housing and reduce social isolation by facilitating participation in activities and living with others

o   Make screening and treatment for vision loss accessible for all

o   Reduce exposure to air pollution

By Nazrin Sadigova