Stubb: "Ukraine’s position is currently strong, while Russia’s is weak"

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that conditions may soon be right for Europe to reopen dialogue with Russia, arguing that Ukraine currently holds a stronger position in the conflict.

In an interview with LRT, Stubb outlined two main reasons for resuming engagement. First, he suggested that the balance of power on the battlefield could create incentives for diplomatic talks.

“There are two reasons why, in my view, the time is approaching for such a dialogue to begin in Europe. First, Ukraine’s position is currently strong, while Russia’s is weak,” he said. “One could say that Ukraine is largely winning this war, and Russia should have an interest in starting a dialogue.”

Secondly, Stubb pointed to what he described as broader European strategic interests, warning that exclusion from negotiations could weaken Europe’s influence over any eventual settlement.

“If you’re not at the table, you’ll be devoured at that table,” he said, adding that maintaining some form of communication would be necessary, even if details such as leadership and conditions remain undecided.

Stubb also said he sees the European Union as highly unified in its response to the war in Ukraine, noting that past divisions have largely faded. He cited the bloc’s coordinated stance during the COVID-19 pandemic and its collective support for Ukraine, with only limited dissenting voices.

“At the moment that issue has disappeared, so we can help Ukraine,” he said, referring to internal EU divisions.

While stressing that no single actor can represent Europe in talks with Moscow, Stubb suggested that multiple representatives could be involved in preparing possible steps toward peace. He emphasized that an immediate priority should be achieving a ceasefire.

“I believe that, first and foremost, we must strive for a ceasefire,” he said, noting that only short, temporary pauses in fighting have occurred so far.

He also suggested that Europe could play a supporting role alongside the United States in facilitating such efforts, adding that Washington is currently more focused on developments in the Middle East, particularly tensions involving Iran.

By Sabina Mammadli