Taiwan tension: Can EU stand firm against Chinese invasion?

In an insightful piece from Foreign Policy, the complexities surrounding the potential for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are examined, particularly in relation to US and EU responses.

As tensions mount and the likelihood of military aggression increases, the article underscores the diminishing leverage the US may hold over China by 2028, largely due to the evolving economic landscape and China's strategic planning.

The analysis begins by highlighting the critical role of sanctions as a deterrence mechanism. With a possible invasion looming, the G-7 would be expected to respond with economic sanctions aimed at curtailing Beijing's aggressive ambitions. However, the article points out that China may have already factored in the costs of such sanctions, thus reducing their potential effectiveness. The EU's position is especially pivotal, as trade relations between China and the bloc significantly influence China’s economic stability.

A key argument presented is that China's perception of European unity is flawed. Chinese leaders may believe they can exploit divisions within the EU to avoid severe economic repercussions. This assumption could embolden them, making the prospect of coordinated EU sanctions critical in altering Beijing's calculations regarding a Taiwan invasion. However, the article cautions that historical tendencies among EU policymakers to hope for the best instead of preparing for the worst may hinder timely and effective action.

The piece delves into the limitations of traditional Western sanctions tools, particularly in light of China's increasing use of the renminbi in international trade. This shift could insulate China from Western financial sanctions, complicating the US and EU's strategic options. Furthermore, export controls, historically a key tactic against Chinese technological advancements, may become less effective as China closes the tech gap and continues its own innovations.

In terms of trade measures, the article posits that targeting specific imports could be a viable strategy for the EU. While blanket bans on Chinese goods could harm European economies, focusing on non-critical consumer goods could exert pressure on China without inflicting undue damage on European industries. The article notes that China's economic model, heavily reliant on exports, could be vulnerable to strategic trade measures, particularly if G-7 countries act in concert.

In conclusion, the analysis suggests that the EU must recognize the potential impact of its decisions in the event of a Taiwanese conflict. By proactively planning and unifying their economic strategies, EU member states could significantly influence the dynamics of a critical geopolitical crisis, emphasizing the importance of cohesion in addressing the challenge posed by China. The call for serious preparation reflects a recognition that the stakes in the Taiwan Strait extend beyond regional tensions and into the realm of global economic stability.