The looming threat: Five signs of potential US-China conflict

In a recent opinion piece by Bloomberg, former US Navy officer and national security expert James Stavridis examines the growing tensions between the United States and China, outlining five warning signs that suggest the possibility of an escalating conflict between the two superpowers. As trade wars, cyberattacks, and military operations intensify, Stavridis reflects on how these issues could quickly spiral into a full-blown hot war, drawing parallels with the early days of World War I, where small incidents triggered a global conflict.

The first warning light highlighted by Stavridis is cyberattacks. China has increasingly targeted critical US infrastructure through sophisticated offensive cyber programs like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon, aimed at ports, water utilities, telecommunications, and airports. These cyber campaigns indicate not only China's capability but also its intent to wage a form of technological warfare that could escalate into broader military confrontation if left unchecked.

Next, aviation pressure on Taiwan serves as another ominous signal. China's increased military incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) are alarming, with over 3,000 incidents last year alone. As Beijing continues to pressure Taiwan, the risk of an unintended military encounter grows, which could easily draw in the US, given its longstanding defence commitments to Taiwan.

The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, where China’s territorial claims and aggressive maritime actions continue to provoke neighbouring countries, including the Philippines, a key US ally in the region. The construction of artificial islands and the stationing of Chinese military assets in these contested waters, particularly in areas close to US military bases, signals an intent to challenge international norms and expand its control over vital maritime routes.

Another crucial indicator is China's rapid naval construction. With the Chinese navy already outnumbering the US in terms of combatant vessels, the rate at which China is building new warships — 20 to 30 per year — signals its serious preparation for potential military conflict at sea. The expansion of China's naval power will be a major factor in determining how the US responds, especially in the event of heightened tensions in the Pacific.

Finally, the tariff and trade conflict serves as a direct economic and geopolitical pressure point. The ongoing trade war, characterised by escalating tariffs and sanctions, mirrors the lead-up to World War II, when economic disputes over resources led to military confrontation. China's control over rare-earth elements and vital minerals, combined with retaliatory measures against US economic interests, could be the tipping point that sparks further hostilities.

Stavridis concludes with a stark reminder of how rapidly conflicts can escalate from seemingly small incidents, like those in the South China Sea, into global confrontations. The five "yellow lights" — cyberattacks, Taiwanese incursions, South China Sea tensions, naval expansion, and trade friction — are all flashing warnings. If they turn red, the world could find itself facing a conflict of catastrophic proportions. As we watch these developments closely, the international community must remain vigilant, hoping that diplomacy can still prevail over the mounting pressures of war.

In short, the world is closer than ever to a potential conflict with China. How these key signs unfold in the coming years will determine whether the US and China can avoid a catastrophic military confrontation.

By Vugar Khalilov