“The revival of the USSR will not happen” Baktybek Saipbayev comments for Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az interviews well-known Kyrgyz political expert, public figure and historian Baktybek Saipbaev.

- How significant is the role of Central Asia (CA) today in the system of international relations, and how serious are the risks for the region due to the unfolding US rivalry with Russia and China?

- In my opinion, Central Asia is beginning to play an increasingly important role in the system of international relations. Unexpectedly, this region has found itself at the center of the entire geopolitical game, and given that important transport corridors pass through here, its role is growing significantly. By the way, Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book “The Chessboard” called Central Asia the “Eurasian Balkans” and predicted that the same situation would arise in our region as in this European peninsula, whose countries have turned into a zone of instability and civil wars.

I believe that the US and the UK are trying to bring this scenario closer, while Russia and China are trying to somehow prevent it. We see that the risk of an invasion by ISIS groups from the territory of Afghanistan into Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan is increasing, so they are constantly monitoring that this conflict does not happen. The ultimate goal of this huge terrorist group is to break through Turkmenistan to the Caspian region, where there is a lot of oil and gas, and control it.

And those forces that are trying to break through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are hatching an old dream - to create an independent Islamic state "Fargana" in the Ferghana Valley. So, the implementation of this plan could lead to a serious hotbed of instability, especially considering that over 7 million people live in the Ferghana Valley. This is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Asia, where the borders of three republics - Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - are located. Accordingly, in the event of the creation of such a state, security threats will inevitably arise for all these three states.

- That is, the process of geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States has already been launched?

- Undoubtedly. The fact is that the United States is actively seeking to play the Uyghur card, to raise the Uyghurs, an ethnic minority in China, to an uprising - a “color revolution”. Beijing, of course, is trying to resist this. But the Western intelligence services are also working with might and main, I mean the British, French, American, which are constantly trying to destabilize the situation both in the former Soviet Central Asia and in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, which at different times was called differently - Kashgar, Xinjiang, and now Suvar.

So, this is one of the side scenarios to cause unrest among the peoples of Central Asia. According to the American plan, when an uprising rises and there is a threat of creating an independent Fargana caliphate, the West should come to the aid of the Muslim Uighur brothers in order to free them from the oppression of the Chinese. And since such a course of events does not suit either China or Russia at all, they are jointly trying to counteract such a scenario.

- Are there any significant preferences for the export of Kyrgyz products to the United States?

- The fact is that formally there are preferences in Kyrgyzstan's trade with Western Europe. Well, what of it? Every year, an exhibition of our Chamber of Commerce and Industry is held in Germany, where Kyrgyzstan demonstrates some types of agricultural products in absolutely insignificant volumes. That's all. Accordingly, it is not necessary to say that Kyrgyzstan can rise due to trade preferences with the US and Europe. Our country is mainly import-dependent, because we have nothing to export. If only some agricultural products of a seasonal nature can be sent to Russia. So, all these preferences remain on paper.

- The other day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said that the EAEU countries can try to create their own creatively developing region. How do you think this will affect Kyrgyzstan?

- I think the Eurasian Economic Union could become the center of the unification of the Eurasian territories, which can be conditionally called the USSR-2, but not in the form in which the Soviet Union existed. Rather, it could be a kind of confederal union of Eurasian states with a common market, capital, labor force and resources. Of course, due to the fact that the region has its own oil and gas, one can try to create favorable conditions for the development of production and agriculture.

If prices for hydrocarbons are acceptable, then this, of course, will create a competitive advantage for the development of industry and rural production. In general, the integration process of Central Eurasia is beneficial to everyone - both for Turkey and Iran, not to mention the post-Soviet republics. It is necessary to ensure that all the republics are convinced that this is mutually beneficial cooperation, which in no way affects their independent politics and does not in any way belittle the sovereignty of individual countries.

- Are there, according to your observations, any prerequisites for a change in the foreign policy of Kyrgyzstan?

- Such attempts on the part of the West are being actively undertaken, which is also noticeable by the number of NGOs. Kyrgyzstan in this regard is a completely unique country - a small country with 6.5 million people, of which more than a million people work abroad - in Russia, Kazakhstan, Western Europe, the USA. So, in this small country, more than 22,000 NGOs are registered, in which more than 300,000 people are involved. It can be said that work in NGOs has actually become a separate industry in the economy of Kyrgyzstan.

I think that in other countries they are not as numerous as in our country. All these NGOs influence the formation of civil society, and the vast majority of them play a positive role.

For example, they help socially vulnerable segments of the population, people with disabilities, try to establish small and medium-sized businesses in the regions, work closely with law enforcement agencies in order to prevent attempts at the slave trade, drug trafficking, and so on.

At the same time, among those NGOs that are engaged in politics and state governance, a certain part plays a destructive role, trying to undermine the statehood, to achieve the introduction of some Western standards and patterns. Let's suppose that the society recognizes LGBT people.

So far, they are not prosecuted by law in our country, although there have been attempts to impose those children have the right to change their sex and so on. As for the change in the foreign policy of Kyrgyzstan, a large-scale sociological study was carried out relatively recently, assessing the degree of friendliness or hostility of a number of countries towards the Russian Federation.

So, Kyrgyzstan took the second place in terms of friendly attitude towards Russia after Belarus. We still respect Lenin, Stalin, no one has ever demolished monuments to these figures. Everyone emphasizes the role of Soviet power in the transition of Kyrgyzstan from a feudal to a developed society, in the creation of a national intelligentsia and domestic science, art, and the military-industrial complex.

At one time in Kyrgyzstan there was a separate design bureau for space research, where they prepared navigation equipment for Soviet satellites, there were very strong developments for tank building, artillery, about 30-40 factories worked for the military-industrial complex, and with the collapse of the USSR, all this fell apart, and the most modern equipment with numerical control was sold to China for the price of scrap metal. Here is the result of the collapse of the USSR.

- It turns out that the Kyrgyz are nostalgic for the USSR?

- I am not nostalgic for the Soviet Union - I remember very well all the disadvantages of this system: the dominance of officials, demagogic and dogmatic ideology, then, finally, what the Communist Party has turned into. I myself have never been a member of the Communist Party, so there is nothing to be nostalgic about the USSR, although there were positive aspects.

We had free education in schools, universities, guaranteed employment, especially for young professionals. All these things should be returned, besides, they are not at all characteristic of the USSR specifically - it was rather a model of a socially-oriented developed market economy.

So, the revival of the USSR will not happen, but a kind of confederal union of Eurasian states will be created, which will unite for quite pragmatic reasons. To do this, we need a common capital market, developed agricultural production, technical production standards, technical regulations and a standard operating procedure, and our own original technological platforms.

- How do you assess the level of interaction between Kyrgyzstan and the countries of the Turkic world, in particular with Azerbaijan, today?

- We have fraternal relations with Azerbaijan. In Kyrgyzstan, they treat the Azerbaijani people and the Azerbaijani state with great sympathy. Ilham Aliyev is in many ways an example of a wise ruler for us, and even more we remember Heydar Aliyev. He was an outstanding statesman and, perhaps, if he had stood at the head of the state, the USSR would not have collapsed. I believe that it is necessary to develop bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan in every possible way, and everything that can be mutually beneficial should be developed.

As for the interaction of Kyrgyzstan with the countries of the Turkic world, in my opinion, the Turan project deserves every kind of approval. However, one should not try to translate it into a military-political channel, to create a single political system with a single army - at this stage of history, all this seems unrealistic. At the same time, from the point of view of economic integration, this would be a very promising direction.

Moreover, I consider it important to create our common alphabet on the basis of the ancient Turkic script that exists. And in the future, to form a certain common integrative Turkic language, which would be understood by all Turkic peoples. I believe this would be a powerful positive impulse for the unification of all Turkic peoples.