Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline: Georgia's stability as a key factor Article by Vladimir Tskhvediani

Immediately after his visit to Uzbekistan, the Prime Minister of Georgia, Irakli Kobakhidze, visited Turkmenistan on March 6 and 7, where he held talks with President Serdar Berdimuhamedov. Irakli Kobakhidze emphasized that cooperation with Turkmenistan is of particular importance for Georgia and its role in the Middle Corridor. He also stressed that Turkmenistan is a country with abundant energy resources and reminded of the prospects for the transit of energy resources from Turkmenistan to the West through Georgia. Thus, the Prime Minister of Georgia effectively touched upon the currently frozen Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project.

“We can offer Turkmenistan very specific assistance in terms of energy resource transit. Furthermore, we are also interested in purchasing energy resources from Turkmenistan. We had very interesting discussions on these issues, and I believe that in the near future we will achieve very concrete progress in our relations based on the signed agreements,” said Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to Georgian journalists in Turkmenistan.

The significance of Turkmenistan for ensuring the energy security of post-Soviet states lacking sufficient domestic energy resources was very high in the past. In the early years of independence, both Ukraine and Georgia received Turkmen natural gas on favorable terms and at a very reasonable price. At the same time, all gas transit was carried out through Russian territory.

Russia, as a monopolistic transit country, gradually began to impose its own terms on Turkmenistan. Eventually, most of Turkmen gas was purchased by the Russian state-owned company Gazprom at a reduced price, only to be resold on the European market, bringing huge profits to the Russian gas monopoly. It was only natural that Turkmenistan began to seek ways to break free from its dependence on Russian transit. The solution was found—China began purchasing Turkmen gas. A gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China was built through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and the official inauguration ceremony of the pipeline took place on December 14, 2009. At the same time, Turkmen gas supplies to Russia gradually decreased, and by the autumn of 2024, they had ceased completely.

However, the European gas market is highly attractive for Turkmenistan. As an "alternative" to supplies through Russian territory, the project for constructing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline across the Caspian Sea has long been considered. This would allow for large-scale deliveries of Turkmen gas through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye to Europe. On December 12, 2011, the European Union’s Council on Foreign Affairs agreed to grant the European Commission a negotiating mandate to hold talks with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan regarding the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline. The launch of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) project increased interest in the Trans-Caspian pipeline as an alternative route for delivering Russian gas to European markets. It was expected that Turkmen gas would be delivered to Europe along with Azerbaijani gas via this corridor.

On February 15, 2018, a meeting of the International Consultative Council of the Southern Gas Corridor was held in Baku, during which it was noted that the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, envisaging the transportation of Turkmen (and possibly later Iranian) gas to Europe, was also included in the Southern Gas Corridor project. The implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project was further supported by the signing of the "Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea" by the heads of the five Caspian states on August 12, 2018, in the Kazakh city of Aktau. According to the Convention, the rules for laying pipelines across the Caspian Sea's bed require the agreement of only the neighboring countries, not all Caspian states. After signing the agreement, Turkmenistan announced that it was ready to lay pipelines across the Caspian Sea to export its gas via Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye to Europe. The only unresolved issue was the funding of the project.

However, unexpectedly, following another meeting of the EU-Turkmenistan Joint Committee in October 2021, the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project was frozen. This occurred at the same time when most political analysts were drawing conclusions about the inevitability of the Russian-Ukrainian war and, consequently, the difficulties with the supply of Russian natural gas to the European market.

It seemed like the perfect time to finance the construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline to ensure European energy security. However, the EU unexpectedly encountered "problems" with financing the project. While the shortage of pipeline gas sources, triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian war, led to a sharp rise in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), supplies from the US, Qatar, and even Russia sharply increased.

In December 2022, a trilateral summit was held between Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye, where the relevance of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project was once again discussed. However, once again, it was impossible to move the project forward, primarily due to financing issues from the EU. During his speech at the Shusha Global Media Forum on July 21, 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that until it is clear who will finance the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, its implementation or even any ideas related to it will appear unrealistic.

"You know very well that now European banks stopped financing the projects of fossil fuel. Therefore, it will be difficult to raise substantial money for that. Because, when we were building the Southern Gas Corridor, apart from corporate financing, we had financing from EBRD, EIB, ADB and also from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. But now two of these European institutions - they are out," stated Ilham Aliyev at that time.

In late July 2023, Turkmenistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly raised the issue of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, stating that there are no factors preventing its construction: "The Trans-Caspian Pipeline is an entirely realistic project, economically justified, capable of making a significant contribution to ensuring energy security in Eurasia, providing long-term and uninterrupted access to raw material sources for European consumers, while ensuring clear benefits and interests for the transit countries," the statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan read.

Undoubtedly, one of the reasons for the somewhat "illogical" behavior of the EU and European banks in terms of financing the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline was the imposition of the so-called "green agenda" by the Joe Biden administration on economically developed countries, including EU member states. However, there was another factor contributing to certain circles in the EU being reluctant to approve funding for the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, and this was directly related to Georgia. Irakli Kobakhidze recently stated that since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the European Union has exerted unprecedented pressure on Georgia, demanding that it join the war against Russia and open a "second front." Thus, Georgia was initially "planned" by the EU as a potential zone of military action.

The reluctance of the ruling party, Georgian Dream, to drag its country into such a geopolitical adventure, with Europeans obsessively seeking to "ignite" the South Caucasus, did not stop the EU. Brussels, along with countries like France, began preparing a coup and a "Maidan" in Georgia, with the same goal – to make Georgia and, if possible, the South Caucasus a battleground for a "great war."

This explains the EU's reluctance to even begin considering the resumption of funding for the "frozen" Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project. A united Europe and the Biden administration were determined until the last moment to "explode" Georgia and turn it into a "battlefield." Europe was categorically unwilling to invest in a gas transit project in a region where war had been "planned," despite the interest of European consumers, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Georgia in the project.

However, the plans to organize a "Maidan" in Tbilisi and drag Georgia into a war against Russia failed. The country defended its sovereignty, and Georgia’s partners have made it clear that there are no obstacles to the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline and the transit of Turkmen gas, including through Georgia. 

The demand for Turkmen gas is real, and it will only grow. Specifically, under an agreement signed on February 10, 2025, between the Turkish company BOTAS and TurkmenGaz, Turkmen natural gas deliveries to Türkiye began on March 1, 2025. Initially, the gas is being delivered via Iran under a barter arrangement, with supplies set to reach up to 2 billion cubic meters per year. 

Commenting on the start of Turkmen gas supplies, Türkiye’s ambassador to Turkmenistan, Ahmet Demirok, stated at a press conference on February 14, 2025, that Türkiye is interested in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, which will increase the volume of gas supplies from Turkmenistan and direct it to the European market. According to Ahmet Demirok, "In the long term, Türkiye is interested in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, which will allow for increased volumes of gas supplies from Turkmenistan to the European market." It is worth noting that the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project envisions supplying up to 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.

The visit of Irakli Kobakhidze to Turkmenistan was a clear sign that the situation in Georgia has fully stabilized, and there are no risks for the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project and the transit of Turkmen natural gas through Georgian territory. It is also noteworthy that during the visit of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze to Turkmenistan, a ceremony took place in Tbilisi at the Orbeliani Palace, where ambassadors from 13 countries (three of which are EU members) presented their credentials to the President of Georgia, Mikheil Kavelashvili. The credentials were presented by the ambassadors of Belgium, Luxembourg, the Philippines, Cambodia, Cyprus, Malaysia, Pakistan, Somalia, Burundi, Guatemala, Mali, South Korea, and Tajikistan.

Thus, the myth that the EU supposedly does not recognize the Georgian Dream government was debunked. As is well known, Belgium is one of the key EU countries, and its capital, Brussels, hosts the EU’s governing bodies. The ambassador of this country did not seek out the so-called "legitimate president" according to the opposition's version, Salome Zourabichvili, but instead presented the credential to the legitimate president, Mikheil Kavlashvili. This was a highly symbolic event, demonstrating the complete failure of plans to destabilize the situation in Georgia based on the "non-recognition of legitimacy" of the current government.

Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, exclusively for Caliber.Az