Trump’s return: A new approach to Middle East diplomacy or more of the same?

As President-elect, Donald Trump promised to “solve” the Middle East but provided few specifics on how he would achieve this. Upon returning to the White House, his "America first" policy will face challenges, particularly the U.S. involvement in Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis there, as highlighted in an analysis by Foreign Affairs.

The Middle East Trump inherits has seen significant changes. Iran and Israel have directly clashed, Israel has militarily dominated groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and Syria's Assad regime collapsed swiftly. U.S. influence in the region has declined, with its support for Israel drawing criticism from both enemies and allies. Under the Biden administration, Palestinian rights have been neglected, and Palestinians remain skeptical that Trump will change his unwavering support for Israel.

Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, remains uncertain. His first term gives some clues: he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, cut aid to Palestinians, and endorsed Israeli settlements in occupied territories. His 2020 peace plan, which favored Israel heavily, was rejected by Palestinians. Despite this, Trump’s unpredictability leaves room for speculation. He may attempt to revive his peace plan, likely offering economic benefits to Palestinians in exchange for sovereignty concessions. However, the Palestinian political landscape is fragmented after Israel’s recent military actions, and there is little unity to resist such a plan. Moreover, Arab countries, now less committed to Palestine after the Abraham Accords, may pressure Palestinians to sign an agreement under Trump’s terms.

Trump’s foreign policy team, including figures like Mike Huckabee and Pete Hegseth, indicates a strong pro-Israel stance. Trump’s relationships with Israeli leaders, particularly Netanyahu, may also influence his approach, allowing him to pressure Israel in ways Biden could not. The future of U.S. policy toward Israel will depend on Israel’s internal dynamics, as well as the broader Middle Eastern context. With Israeli society divided and Netanyahu facing growing tensions, Trump could play a role in pushing for a more balanced approach if it aligns with his interests.

Trump’s ego and desire for a grand Middle East deal could push him to offer a new proposal if Saudi Arabia and Palestinian leaders are involved. However, the Palestinian future appears bleak. Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel face ongoing repression, with little hope for meaningful change. However, Palestinian unity and renewed national self-determination could shift the region's dynamics, especially if supported by countries like Saudi Arabia. Without such support, Palestinians may have to endure ongoing conflict, relying on international allies to aid their cause.

By Vugar Khalilov