Turning point for Georgia - Foreign Agents Law Georgian experts’ views for Caliber.Az

The intensive protests against the adoption of the law on foreign agents have been recently observed in Georgia. The Law “On Transparency of Foreign Influence” has certainly become an apple of discord for Georgian society. According to several analysts, a peaceful consensus on its adoption in Georgia is out of the question.

What do Georgian political analysts think about the political situation in the country? What are the further developments?

Georgian political analyst, ex-minister of education and science, director of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development Ghia Nodia expressed his view to Caliber.Az.

Nodia said that the protests intensified after Georgian politician and oligarch, head of the ruling party Bidzina Ivanishvili’s speech at a rally in Tbilisi on April 29. Ivanishvili’s statement should be assessed as ambiguous.

“The speech was very aggressive. Ivanishvili made a bid for dictatorship. He did not openly declare Georgia’s pro-Russian policy, in essence, a break with the West was announced. At the same time, it is obvious that the head of the ruling party is not going to make any compromises. Therefore, apparently proceeding from Ivanishvili’s position on April 30, the police decided to deal very harshly with the demonstrators to stop all protest sentiments. However, the police were unable to withstand the clashes and retreated. The demonstrators continued protesting till morning. So at this stage, the demonstrators gained a psychological victory,” Nodia said.

“It is impossible to predict the further developments. Of course, I would like all the protests to take place peacefully. The government should compromise. It is better to withdraw the law on foreign agents. A lot depends on the government,” the political analyst noted.

“On the other hand, it is quite obvious that the protesters’ sentiments are also very radical, and even if the law is recalled, this does not mean that everything will end. Other demands may also be voiced. A year ago the government already put the same law on foreign agents to a vote, but it was withdrawn due to public resistance. The protesters are mainly young people, most of whom are not even associated with any political forces in Georgia,” he said.

“The current developments are a turning point for Georgia, because everything testifies to the strengthening of the dictatorship of the ruling party represented by Ivanishvili, or this is the path to a change of power. So everything is very serious,” he added.

Other Georgian political analyst, founder of the SIKHA Foundation research centre Archil Sikharulidze also expressed his opinion.

“The situation in Georgia is generally stable. The political battles are usually observed in Georgia before elections, but at the moment the matter rests in political confrontation, rallies are underway. It seems to me that rallies were planned to be held in October, November, December 2023, but the idea was futile because the opposition was unable to gather the required number of electorates under its banner. People have been attracted to stand against the scandalous law. The law on financing foreign agents was put forward a year ago. I think that it will be adopted. The majority of Georgian political analysts who are not associated with non-profit organisations and European agencies support this idea, because external financing has become a very large-scale phenomenon in the country, and Georgia needs this law,” Sikharulidze said.

“The clashes have recently occurred among special forces, police and some protesters in Tbilisi, but this is quite clear, because the opposition, those people who participate in the rallies, have no real power. Therefore, a nationwide mass uprising did not occur, and the only way out for them in such a situation is to go on a rampage, escalating the situation for the Georgian Dream to get scared and retreat, or to show society that the authorities are using violence against young people, and Georgian society must rebel,” he noted.

“However, it seems to me that the law will be adopted because despite some advantages of the activity, non-commercial organisations are viewed by people as organisations that cannot be trusted. According to the statistic study, public trust in non-commercial organisations does not exceed 29 per cent, and this is not even a third of the population. For the majority of Georgians, all these European benefits that non-commercial organisations are talking about are still unattainable, so there will be no mass uprising, and the government, in turn, has all the resources to resist the protesters,” Sikharulidze said.

“The protesters are well aware that if it comes to the third reading, the law will be adopted on May 17, and this day is known as Family-Values Day in Georgia, where people with traditional values will deliver speeches and hold rallies. The number of these people is more than those who are now raising the European flags, and their idea on this day will certainly fail. If the law is adopted, there will be no point in protesting it, because then there will be parliamentary holidays and new elections to the Georgian parliament in October, where the Georgian Dream will undoubtedly win,” he added.