UK’s “hollowed out” armed forces not ready to fight Russia

Britain’s “increasingly overstretched” Armed Forces are not ready for a war with Russia, a damning inquiry by MPs has concluded, The Telegraph reports, Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Lack of soldiers and arms must be addressed with a major shake-up, warns landmark report.

A year-long review by the Commons defence committee found that the Government “will never achieve warfighting or strategic readiness” without urgent reforms to reverse a recruitment crisis and dramatically boost Britain’s stockpile of weapons and ammunition.

In a stark report, the MPs said that the Armed Forces required more funding to “engage in operations whilst also developing warfighting readiness” or it would have to reduce the “operational burden” on the military.

Amid increasing pressure on defence spending, the committee discovered that £1.95 billion of funding awarded in the Budget last spring may now be used to plug shortfalls in defence rather than to replenish and boost stockpiles.

Writing in The Telegraph, Sir Jeremy Quin, the committee’s Conservative chairman, states that the UK “must rise to the challenge” amid warnings that Nato countries may have just three years to prepare for a Russian offensive.

Sir Jeremy, who was defence procurement minister until 2022, says: “To confront the threats we face with confidence, we need to know that we would be ready for war.”

The cross-party committee’s warning came after it was told by former defence chiefs that the Armed Forces had been “hollowed out” since 2010 and, “in a peer-on-peer conflict... would have exhausted their capabilities after the first couple of months of the engagement”.

The report states: “The UK Armed Forces have deployed above their capacity in response to the worsening security situation, but all have capability shortfalls and stockpile shortages, and are losing personnel faster than they can recruit them.”

Sir Jeremy adds: “The MoD have acknowledged that only five personnel are recruited for every eight that leave the military.” He says a renewed focus “on recruitment is vital and timely”.

No 10 ruled out conscription last month when Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, the Chief of the General Staff, said that the UK must be ready to train citizens for a future conflict.

However, Gen Martin Herem, commander of Estonia’s Defence Force, which borders Russia, called on Nato countries to begin conscription programmes. 

“Whatever is scary for me, is not scary for the French or the English. That’s why it’s very hard to motivate their populations to join any kind of volunteer military movement ready to defend the country,” he said.

“I definitely suggest for all countries to establish some kind of conscript-type of citizen services.

“First based on volunteers, like a one-year contract which includes the training and then another half year of service, before sending them to the reserves. That’s how you will have a reserve.”

A major weakness identified following evidence submitted by current and former defence chiefs, industry figures and ministers was a lack of domestic manufacturing capability to produce weapons, combat vehicles and ammunition at the pace required to replenish stockpiles and respond to the demand that would be created by a war.

In evidence to the committee, Lord Houghton, who was chief of the defence staff between 2013 and 2016, said that the UK had been taking a “risk” by ordering finite amounts of key equipment such as the NLAW missiles used to target Russian tanks in Ukraine – rather than longer-term contracts to ensure a ready supply.

The current approach – described by Lord Houghton as a “gross strategic error” – is now being urgently reviewed by senior ministers. In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, said the Government should be “trying to work with our defence industries to line up longer runs in production”, adding that such an approach would require committing funding over several years.

The Telegraph understands that one commonly used munition – a 155mm artillery shell – which sources said was in “desperately short supply”, can only be produced by one machine in the UK.

Andrew Kinniburgh, the director-general of Make UK Defence, one of two major industry bodies for defence firms, said: “We are still struggling to get the Government to realise that, in terms of industrial capacity, if they don’t use it, they’ll lose it ... if there is no demand, the defence industry will simply let that capability wither on the vine.”

He described NLAWs, thousands of which have been sent by the UK to Ukraine, as “a great example of where there were no orders for years and, as a result, the production lines were effectively shut down”.

In another case, Mr Kinniburgh said, the UK “didn’t spend a penny on armoured vehicles for years” so “when it came to buying the much-delayed Ajax vehicles we had to use a Spanish-designed vehicle as the base platform”.

Lord Houghton told the committee that the purchase of key warfighting equipment in one-off, finite orders was “a gross strategic error in our national resilience”.

The report identifies three types of military readiness, only one of which it says is “proven” in the UK.

The first is operational readiness – “the ability to deploy a force for a standing commitment or respond to a crisis” – which the MPs concluded is “proven, but with issues of overstretch”.

Second is warfighting readiness – “the ability to deploy and sustain a force that can fight at high intensity in multiple domains for a prolonged period of time”. The committee said: “We find this to be in doubt.”

The third is strategic readiness – “the ability of the state to identify and utilise all the tools available to it to support a warfighting effort”. The MPs state that this still appeared to be a theoretical concept being debated in Whitehall rather than “an agreed policy with measurable deliverables”.

The report states: “It is clear that the Government will never achieve warfighting or strategic readiness without a thriving industrial base and without an offer that can attract, develop and sustain enough service personnel skilled to meet the increasing and evolving military challenges that we as a nation face. These reforms need to work, and at pace.”

On February 3 night, in the latest hardware setback for the military, the Royal Navy announced that its aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth was unable to take part in planned Nato duties from Sunday due to a problem with its starboard propeller shaft.

‘Ready to defend UK’

An MoD spokesman said: “Our Armed Forces are always ready to protect and defend the UK, and we continue to meet all operational commitments, including participating in every single Nato mission, supporting Ukraine, and tackling Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

“We are spending more than £50 billion on defence this year alone, and have significantly increased our spending on defence equipment to £288.6 billion over the next decade, including investing in deepening our stockpiles and bringing in new tanks, fighter jets and warships.

“We have been clear that increasing recruitment and improving retention across the services is a top priority, including through ensuring improved career opportunities and making it easier for people to re-join the forces, on top of the largest pay increase in more than 20 years.”

The spokesman added: “We are fully engaged with industry, allies and partners to ensure we can continue to equip Ukraine with vital supplies, while replacing all equipment and munitions granted in kind from UK stocks as efficiently as possible.”

The MoD had “placed an order for 155mm artillery shells with BAE Systems, which will increase the UK’s stockpile and deliver an eight-fold increase in production capacity.”