UK struggles to match promises with reality as economic hopes dim Brexit fallout

In a recent article by POLITICO, the aftermath of Brexit is analyzed as the United Kingdom grapples with the reality of its departure from the European Union. The piece reflects on how the vision articulated by Brexit proponents has largely faltered in practice, signalling a departure from the promises made during the 2016 referendum.

Since Boris Johnson's election victory five years ago, key figures of the Vote Leave campaign have departed from the political stage. Johnson himself, now out of Parliament, has turned to lucrative engagements in speeches and journalism. Meanwhile, Michael Gove has exited politics, and Dominic Cummings, once a central architect of Brexit strategy, now delves into diverse pursuits such as blogging about literature and technology.

The initial fervour for sweeping deregulation and ambitious free trade agreements has not materialized as expected. Radical plans to remove EU regulations en masse have been abandoned, and the anticipated economic benefits from global free trade deals have proven elusive. Instead, public services in the UK have faced challenges, with migration levels continuing to rise despite pledges to the contrary.

The Labour Party, under Keir Starmer's leadership, has shifted towards maintaining the current Brexit settlement rather than reversing it, underlining a pragmatic stance of "Making Brexit Work." However, this approach has not garnered trust from staunch Brexiteers, who remain sceptical of Labour's commitment to Brexit implementation.

Moreover, the economic gains from post-Brexit trade agreements have been minimal. Most agreements have either replicated existing EU deals or involved countries geographically distant from the UK, offering negligible boosts to the economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts a long-term GDP reduction of approximately 4% due to Brexit, contrasting sharply with the modest economic impacts of recent trade agreements.

In response to these challenges, the UK government has adjusted its approach, dialling back on the pursuit of numerous free trade agreements and focusing instead on fewer, potentially more impactful deals. Yet, longstanding promises such as a comprehensive trade deal with the United States appear increasingly improbable, reflecting both political shifts in Washington and persistent concerns over regulatory standards.

The divergence between the Brexit vision of enhanced sovereignty and regulatory freedom, and the practical realities of economic integration and public expectations, remains stark. Efforts to drastically overhaul regulatory frameworks or capitalize on newfound regulatory autonomy have met resistance, highlighting a disconnect between political rhetoric and public sentiment.

Overall, the article underscores a critical juncture for Brexit Britain, where initial ambitions collide with pragmatic constraints and evolving political realities. As the UK navigates its post-Brexit future, questions persist about the sustainability of current strategies and the broader implications for its global positioning and domestic governance.