Ukraine concentrating on winning war, reinventing itself

Roman Rukomeda, a Ukrainian political analyst has written an article for Euractiv arguing that observing Ukrainian society from the inside, it is clear that it is not very good at adapting to the hardships of war but that it is rapidly maturing. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Today is the 323rd day of massive Russian aggression and war against Ukraine.

After the liberation of part of the Kherson region and clearing Ukrainian territories from Russians on the right bank of the Dnipro river, the Armed forces of Ukraine prepared the ground and directions for the next offensive operations, counting on increased assistance from NATO,  and the EU, also taking into account the weather conditions.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed forces do not give any rest to the Russian aggressors. Each day and night, the Ukrainian army attack them with artillery, air and ground forces. There is number of tactical counter-offensive operations that are centred on inflicting maximum damage to Russian troops and the destruction of their weapons and ammunition warehouses. According to the Ukrainian General Staff figures, Russian aggressors lose about 500-800 troops and dozens of armoured vehicles, tanks, artillery units, UAVs and other war machines each day.

At the same time, Russia is trying to attack mostly in the Donetsk region around the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar, using the mercenaries and prisoners recruited by the Wagner group and its remaining military formations.

The Russian goal is to demonstrate at least some victory, even if it is just a small town. On the other scale, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company linked to the Russian leadership, wants to show his value to Putin and obtain more influence.

Against the background of the growing problems for Russia in defending captured parts of Ukraine, we observe an increasing number of Russian attempts to lobby for some sort of political negotiations with NATO and the EU to break for regrouping before a new attack.

With its current leadership and ideology, it is clear that Russia will follow the path of war until they suffer total military defeat. Hopefully, no one in US and Europe will play that “negotiations game” which would give time to Putin to prepare a bigger aggression.

Ukrainian society is trying to adapt to the war as much as possible. Due to the problems with the electricity, water and heating caused by Russian attacks on energy and other infrastructure objects, people are trying to use different devices for alternative electricity production. They use diesel/gasoline generators, electric power batteries/stations, small solar panels and many other innovations. In the survival kit of the average Ukrainian, you will find the power bank and the lighter. About 80 per cent of small and medium businesses have bought alternative sources of electricity and continue their operation and services.

Observing Ukrainian society from the inside, it is clear that it is rapidly maturing. One of the signs of it is understanding the changes that should be made to become an integral part of the EU and NATO. One of the last opinion polls shows that about 73 per cent of Ukrainian citizens supported EU demands about conducting reforms in Ukraine to integrate into the European Union. About 30 per cent of people said it is the right way because the reforms are in Ukraine’s interests. At the same time, about 26 per cent of Ukrainians said that the EU should not be too strict on the way to reforms because of the ongoing war and all the problems connected to it.

Of course, the most challenging situation is in the front-line regions as Russian terrorists continue to destroy and terrorise the civilian population with constant shelling. According to the UN and official Ukrainian information, each tenth school in the country is damaged or destroyed. Two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants in European nations are children.

The economic situation in Ukraine is also rather complicated. About 50 per cent of the state budget is covered by donations from the US, EU, IMF and some other partners. The level of GDP reduction will be about 35 per cent in 2022.

Around 50 per cent of the national energy system is seriously damaged and requires reconstruction. Nearly 20 per cent of the population has left the country, escaping from the war. About 17 per cent of Ukraine’s territories remain occupied by Russian aggressors who continue to plunder and destroy it.

Russians steal all the industrial equipment, raw materials or resources, destroy infrastructure objects, plant land mines, making the captured towns and villages impossible for further living.

They create “the burned land” as a bumper zone, understanding perspectives of their loss and retreat and causing maximum damage to the Ukrainian economy and civilians. The the country with the highest concentration of ore/coal mines and metallurgical plants, all of which are now totally destroyed.

About 30 per cent of Ukrainians are unemployed.  Now the big question is how Ukraine’s economy will be reformed after the victory and how much time it will take to restore the system and people’s standard of living.

Indeed, Ukraine is reinventing itself, with confidence in a future as a member of the EU and NATO.