Ukrainian refugees in Europe: A future beyond return

Three years into the war in Ukraine, the refugee information centre in Krakow, Poland, is bustling. While earlier refugees sought housing and employment, now, says Ludmila Dimitrow, the centre's co-ordinator, many are looking for advice on obtaining permanent residency or Polish citizenship. Polish language classes are in high demand, with hundreds applying for each new course, according to The Economist.

The European Union’s "temporary protection" scheme, which provides housing, employment, and benefits to 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees, is set to end next March. While Europe is unlikely to follow the U.S. lead in revoking refugee status, the future of the program remains uncertain. Whether or not it is extended, many refugees are increasingly abandoning hopes of returning to Ukraine.

A recent study by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) reveals that only 43% of Ukrainian refugees plan to return, down from 74% two years ago. The uncertainty surrounding the war’s resolution—especially the possibility of a ceasefire without Ukrainian membership in NATO or the EU—has left many feeling that staying in Europe offers greater security.

Initially, it was expected that many Ukrainian women, who make up the bulk of refugees, would eventually return. However, with the possibility that martial law restrictions may ease, there is concern that many more Ukrainians, particularly men, could leave the country, exacerbating the strain on Ukraine’s labor market and defense capabilities. Some 500,000 men could potentially flee, adding pressure on the government to maintain restrictions on travel.

Meanwhile, in Poland, Ukrainian refugees are increasingly becoming part of the workforce, contributing to the economy. Over 67% of refugees, mostly women, are working or actively seeking employment. The Polish government plans to offer refugees the opportunity to exchange their temporary protection status for a three-year residence permit, potentially impacting hundreds of thousands.

In contrast, other EU countries, such as Germany, face challenges integrating refugees into the workforce. In Germany, only 43% of Ukrainian refugees were employed by the end of 2024, and many struggle to find jobs that match their qualifications. Language barriers and slow recognition of qualifications contribute to these difficulties.

Despite the challenges, many Ukrainians are choosing to stay in Europe, even as their prospects remain uncertain. As one music teacher from Ukraine, Anzhelika, reflects, the risk of returning to Ukraine, where war may resume, is too great for her to consider going back with her children.

The ongoing conflict and its aftermath continue to shape the future of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, where their decisions will depend not just on the war’s end, but on the kind of future Ukraine will have.

By Vugar Khalilov