US attempts to mediate in escalating Gaza crisis

The dynamics between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been increasingly strained since last October, marked by divergent approaches to the escalating conflict in Gaza, The Washington Post features. 

A year ago, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan noted, “Although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges, the region is quieter than it has been for decades.” This statement, made in an essay for Foreign Affairs, was submitted before Hamas's devastating attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023—a day that marked the bloodiest in Jewish history since the Holocaust and led to Israel's severe retaliation in Gaza.

Sullivan's perception of a "quieter" region reflected the White House's approach at that time. President Joe Biden and his administration aimed to invest less political capital in complex conflicts and were encouraged by signs of regional self-resolution: the Yemen war had de-escalated, Gulf states were engaging with both Iran and Israel, and old grievances were being set aside. Given the array of challenges facing the administration, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to rising tensions with China, a more stable Middle East was a welcome desire. However, the events of October 7 shattered this perceived calm, highlighting the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian crisis that previous US administrations had neglected.

This incident forced the White House back into the fray, leading to a year of inconsistent US efforts to support Israel while also providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians and preventing further regional conflict. Now, a year later, the aftermath of October 7 looms as an unwelcome conclusion to Biden’s presidency. The extensive destruction in Gaza and the high Palestinian death toll have drawn criticism from the left, branding him as complicit in what they term a “genocide.” The anticipated cease-fire, which US officials had hoped would soon materialize, seems unlikely to be established before Biden leaves office. A broader regional conflict is already escalating, with Israel intensifying operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran launching missile attacks against Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video message directed at the Lebanese people, condemning the transformation of their country into a “forward operating military base” for Iran. He warned that unless they remove Hezbollah—a militant organization that also holds significant political power—they would experience the same “destruction and suffering” that Israel has imposed on Gaza. This situation has frustrated the Biden administration, which had spent months trying to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Recent reports indicate a growing “distrust” between US officials and their Israeli counterparts, with the Biden administration reportedly angered by Israel's lack of notice before launching strikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has privately described Netanyahu’s government as “playing with house money,” believing it could rely on US support for its military objectives against Iranian retaliation.

As the anniversary of October 7 approached, it became clear that Netanyahu had been counting on Biden's tolerance throughout the conflict, which has tarnished Israel’s global standing despite tactical successes against Hamas and Hezbollah. In the initial weeks following the attack, US officials expressed concerns about potential war crimes and high civilian casualties in Gaza, as revealed in leaked emails obtained by Reuters. However, Biden’s support for Israel’s right to self-defense took precedence over these concerns. US officials were skeptical of Netanyahu's claim that the ratio of militants to civilian casualties was 1-to-1. Internal assessments from two US agencies indicated that Israel was intentionally obstructing the flow of food and fuel into Gaza—an allegation that could lead to war crimes charges against Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant at the International Criminal Court.

Nevertheless, Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued to defend Israel, stating before Congress this spring that there was no evidence of deliberate obstruction, despite his own staff's findings. Since last October, the relationship between Biden and Netanyahu has been marked by strain and tension. Netanyahu has been open about his preference for former President Donald Trump, while his far-right allies often criticize the current US administration. Biden attempted to limit Israel’s full-scale invasion of the southern Gazan city of Rafah this year, understanding the potential humanitarian disaster it would create for civilians and aid organisations. 

By Naila Huseynova