US elections may delay Iran’s nuclear deal talks

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected with the goal of revitalizing the country's struggling economy by persuading the West to lift sanctions related to its nuclear programme.

However, during his first significant diplomatic challenge at the United Nations General Assembly this week, he is expected to achieve little. Western diplomats indicate that serious discussions regarding sanctions are unlikely until after the US election, and he probably won't meet with major European leaders or President Biden. Officials report minimal signs of any policy changes in Iran since Pezeshkian took office in July, despite his moderate stance, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Given the low likelihood of diplomatic breakthroughs, his visit will primarily be assessed based on his speech at the General Assembly, scheduled shortly after Biden's address. This speech represents an opportunity for Pezeshkian to set a new tone for Iran’s foreign policy, one that Tehran hopes will yield positive outcomes with Western nations following the US presidential election in November.

Some US officials view a regional and nuclear agreement with Iran as a probable outcome if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, hoping that the threat of a European-led reimposition of all sanctions suspended under the nuclear deal will encourage Tehran to negotiate. This reimposition option is only available until October 2025. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, indicated that Iran is likely open to a series of limited or interim agreements that could yield specific economic benefits in exchange for steps to curtail its nuclear activities or possibly define limits on its regional actions. 

The Iranian president could find himself in a very different scenario if Donald Trump returns to the White House. While some Iranian officials speculate that Trump might pursue a major new agreement with Tehran, the former president has shown little indication that he would abandon his maximum-pressure sanctions strategy. Amid these uncertainties, Iran’s leadership is steadfastly pursuing its recent strategies. US and European officials reported earlier this month that Iran has sent ballistic missiles to Russia for the first time, defying multiple warnings from Western nations. 

Tehran continues to support its militia allies in targeting Israel and US forces in the region, and the UN atomic agency indicated in late August that Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to unprecedented levels. Outgoing European Council President Charles Michel met with the Iranian president in New York and remarked that the relationship between the EU and Iran is “at its lowest point ever,” according to a diplomat who attended the meeting.

Iran’s decision to supply ballistic missiles to Russia suggests that the regime does not fully rely on Pezeshkian’s diplomatic efforts and will prioritize its objectives over those of the president if they conflict. In response, the US and European nations have imposed sanctions on Iran for this action.

By Naila Huseynova