US faces evolving threats from China, Russia, and Iran Crisis of Deterrence

In a recent article for Foreign Affairs, the author examines the current crisis of deterrence facing the United States and its allies amid escalating threats from China, Russia, and Iran.

The piece highlights how China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea and potential military manoeuvres regarding Taiwan, coupled with Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine, challenge Western responses. In the Middle East, Iran's retaliatory threats against Israel, Hezbollah’s rocket strikes, and the Houthis’ attacks on shipping routes intensify the situation.

The article critiques traditional deterrence theory, primarily rooted in Cold War thinking and the concept of mutually assured destruction. It notes that while this framework has effectively deterred nuclear powers, it falls short against nonnuclear actors, especially nonstate groups. For instance, the US attempts to apply deterrence strategies against North Vietnam during the Vietnam War were largely ineffective, leading to increased conflict rather than resolution.

To counter Iran's aggressive actions, the author argues that the US must adopt a more assertive posture. This includes not only retaliating against Iranian missile strikes but also sending strong signals of commitment to allies like Israel. The US should leverage its military capabilities, including air defence systems and naval assets, to demonstrate readiness and resolve.

Moreover, the article suggests that the US should consider direct consequences for Iran’s actions, potentially undermining its influence over proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. By clarifying the repercussions of continued aggression, Washington could foster a more stable deterrence environment.

However, the author warns that the US must balance these actions against broader strategic goals, particularly the need to address threats from China and Russia. A decision to withdraw or lessen military engagement in the Middle East could lead to significant geopolitical consequences, such as diminished US credibility and increased regional instability.

Ultimately, the article underscores that effective deterrence in today’s complex security landscape requires accepting significant risks and a willingness to act decisively, particularly against nonnuclear threats.