Why similar uprisings in Bangladesh, Nepal produced different outcomes

Bangladesh and Nepal both experienced major protest movements in recent months that aimed to replace the existing political order. Yet the outcomes have diverged sharply. As a rapper-turned-politician moves toward a sweeping victory in Nepal’s first general election since the violent Gen Z protests that toppled the government in September, the political result contrasts starkly with developments in Bangladesh.

Balendra Shah—widely known as Balen—has defeated former prime minister K. P. Sharma Oli in his parliamentary constituency in the March 5 general election, bringing him closer to becoming Nepal’s next prime minister. Early results released by the Election Commission of Nepal over the weekend showed Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) on track to win the national vote.

For more than two decades, Nepal’s politics have been marked by a succession of fragile coalition governments dominated by three major parties: the Nepali Congress (Centrist Social Democrats), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre).

In September 2025, widespread unrest erupted in Nepal after Oli’s government banned several social media platforms. The demonstrations—often described as Gen Z protests—quickly broadened into criticism of the country’s political system and the perceived dominance of political families, symbolised by the term "nepo babies". Dozens of people were killed during clashes with police.

Shah had already built a public profile through Nepal’s hip-hop scene before entering politics. In 2022 he was elected mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City as an independent candidate, defeating prominent contenders from the major parties. After the dissolution of the House of Representatives of Nepal, he stepped down from the mayoral post, joined the RSP as a senior leader and decided to challenge Oli in the general election.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh, which does not share a land border with Nepal as it is almost completely surrounded by India but is separated only by the narrow Siliguri Corridor, followed a different political trajectory. A student-led uprising there brought down the government in August 2024, forcing then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina to flee her official residence by military helicopter to India.

The upheaval created a power vacuum and led to the formation of the country’s first student-led political organisation, the National Citizen Party (NCP). The movement asked Muhammad Yunus—the economist and Nobel laureate known for pioneering microcredit—to guide the country through a transitional period until elections could be held.

Importance of gathering support around one leader

However, according to an analysis published by NDTV, the student movement failed to produce a leader broadly acceptable to the electorate. The protests had focused primarily on removing Hasina and did not present a clear political alternative. As a result, the main opposition force from the previous political era returned to power in elections held in February 2026.

Following the fall of Hasina’s government, Tarique Rahman—son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia—emerged as the most credible alternative despite being part of the traditional political establishment. After 17 years in political exile abroad, Rahman presented new ideas and a vision for the country’s future.

His “I have a plan” speech helped shape the campaign of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), focusing attention on the party’s policy proposals for citizens.

According to the analysis, this approach made Rahman appear more pragmatic to voters than the student groups, which had aligned with the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami—a fringe electoral player. Rahman’s outreach to minority communities and emphasis on inclusive politics also strengthened his appeal.

By contrast, observers noted that Shah in Nepal had not initially sought higher office. During his tenure as mayor he was once asked whether he aspired to become prime minister—a possibility he declined at the time. In Bangladesh, however, student leaders were perceived by some voters as pursuing power rather than systemic reform, as per the article.

The NCP’s alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami—often criticised for its anti-minority stance—also alienated parts of the electorate. Analysts argued that the partnership created the impression that student activists were willing to compromise their own movement’s ideals to secure political victory.

Shah’s campaign in Nepal took a different approach. He was seen as promoting an inclusive platform that appealed to minority groups, particularly the Madhesi people.

NDTV also noted that Shah’s tenure as mayor of Kathmandu strengthened his credibility. His administration focused on everyday urban issues affecting residents, including improving traffic management, clearing encroachments on public land and addressing long-standing waste-disposal problems in the capital.

By Nazrin Sadigova