Will Hezbollah go to war with Israel? International panorama with Mikhail Shereshevsky

Last week, the Lebanese, and with them many other residents of the Middle East, tensely awaited the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. They argued: will he declare war on Israel or not?

The sheikh threatened the Israelis and their American allies, pointed out that the “resistance forces” were in confrontation with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and wished Hamas victory. It became clear that the Lebanese Hezbollah would not enter a full-scale war, and for now, the matter would be limited to exchanges of fire with the IDF in the border areas.

However, the Lebanese were not in vain to worry. And it is not just that Hezbollah’s entry into a full-scale war would mean Israel delivering crushing blows to Lebanese territory, including a ground operation, which would put the country’s civilian population in a desperate situation. Hezbollah is the real master of Lebanon, although it does not formally govern the country.

Like Hamas, Hezbollah is part of a network of Iranian allies and satellites. But her role is much more important. These are the most powerful Iranian proxies and are considered one of the best armies in the Middle East. With 50,000-60,000 military personnel, including reservists, tank units and Radwan special forces, Hezbollah is superior to the Lebanese army itself. And if you consider that until recently the main security structure of the country, to which all security forces are subordinate - the General Directorate of General Security of Lebanon - was under the control of its supporter Abbas Ibrahim and his people, it becomes clear how strong Hezbollah is (in May, Abbas Ibrahim resigned). It is also worth considering that the official army is split, and a significant part of it is also under the control of Hezbollah.

At the same time, the party does not even have the support of the majority of the Shiite community of Lebanon, having received only 13 seats out of 128 in the last elections in May 2022. This is despite the fact that the majority of Lebanese did not come to the elections at all, believing that they are controlled by scammers and corrupt officials and it makes no sense to choose any of them. However, thanks to alliances with other parties, including the Shiite Amal and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement of Lebanon, Hezbollah maintains a strong influence in parliament and government.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a Lebanese multimillionaire and Sunni by religion, is also a Hezbollah protege. In 2019, during the revolutionary events, about 2 million residents, including hundreds of thousands of Shiites, took to the streets, blocked highways and attacked the headquarters of some parties, including Hezbollah, demanding an end to corruption and meeting the basic needs of the population in medical services and electricity etc. This movement was defeated, among other things, because it came under pressure from Hezbollah militants.

Thus, the organization demonstrated that it protects the entire corrupt ruling class of Lebanon - banks, officials, party politicians and their influential families. Hezbollah itself is an international corporation associated with various financial and trade transactions, from oil supplies to Lebanon to the jewelry trade in South America. Hezbollah researcher Hanin Ghaddar points out that the party is involved in drug trafficking.

As a wealthy and influential organization, Hezbollah is involved in the redistribution of large financial flows. The party leadership absolutely does not want to enter into a destructive war with Israel and the forces of the two US Navy aircraft carrier groups that came to its aid. The leaders of this party feel great, being rich and influential people.

However, Hezbollah is heavily dependent on Iranian military and financial assistance. Without this help, it is impossible to maintain the party's armed forces, as well as the extensive social support network that provides Hezbollah with supporters: from construction companies to schools and hospitals, from special supermarkets and pharmacies where party members are sold cheap Iranian goods, to the taxi service that transports Shiite workers to factories. If the Iranians order an attack on Israel, Hezbollah will have no choice but to comply.

To strike Israel, Hezbollah has a potential of 150,000-200,000 missiles, about 10 times more than Hamas. But this potential is also qualitatively superior to that of Hamas, since Hezbollah has hundreds of precision-guided missiles and drones. It is capable of raining rockets on Israeli territory for months, paralyzing its economy.

If a ground operation begins, the Israelis will be met by tens of thousands of militants trained for guerrilla-sabotage warfare. The hilly and forested terrain of southern Lebanon is ideal for guerrilla operations. Israel already faced this problem during its unsuccessful war in 2006.

Still, Hezbollah is unlikely to go to war with Israel anytime soon. As Iranian-American researcher Ali Alfoneh notes, Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, commander of the Iranian Qods Force that conducts external operations, sees the role of Lebanese Hezbollah as a deterrent against a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites, and not as a tool for preemption attacks on Israel.

Alfoneh reports that during a visit to Beirut on December 1, 2020, Qaani reportedly instructed Hezbollah leadership “not to provoke Israel” following the killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist believed to have been orchestrated by the Israelis. During an April visit to Beirut, he coordinated a missile attack on Israeli targets, but restricted it to limits beyond which could provoke a war with Israel.

If Hamas for Tehran is a consumable asset in the fight against Israel, then Hezbollah is a valuable strategic asset, a trump card that can be presented in the event that Israel begins bombing Iran, especially its nuclear facilities. The Iranians did not invest billions of dollars in Hezbollah for decades only to lose it so easily.