WP: Will Trump’s second-term diplomacy yield a new deal with Iran?

President Donald Trump is seeking to repair relations with Iran, sending envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Iranian officials in Muscat, Oman, this weekend.

This marks a striking shift in Trump’s approach after he abandoned the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, calling it “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions” in US history, Caliber.Az reports per The Washington Post (WP).

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) had been hailed as a diplomatic triumph by the Obama administration, placing strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, Trump’s withdrawal from the deal led to the reimposition of severe sanctions on Iran, significantly increasing tensions in the Middle East.

The collapse of the JCPOA left Iran closer to developing a nuclear weapon, while its regional proxy activities intensified. Despite this, Trump’s administration now seems to seek a more stable diplomatic path, with Witkoff leading talks intended to explore new terms. While the summit is officially described as a "direct" conversation by the US, Iran has labelled it “indirect” for diplomatic reasons.

Iran's approach has evolved as well, with officials signalling a desire for engagement. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi recently suggested that Trump might be more open to negotiations than his successor, Joe Biden, who struggled to reignite talks. The Iranians also noted the potential economic opportunities for US companies should a deal be reached.

While Trump remains committed to ensuring that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon, the specific terms of a potential agreement remain unclear. Proposals such as dismantling Iran's nuclear program entirely, inspired by the "Libya model," are viewed as politically unfeasible by many analysts. Instead, a narrower deal focusing on enrichment levels and monitoring mechanisms might provide a more realistic path forward.

The pressure on both sides is mounting, with the UN’s "snapback" mechanism for sanctions expiring later this year. Should diplomacy fail, Trump has hinted that military action remains an option, though many experts caution against such a drastic course.

The outcome of these talks could reshape the future of Iran’s nuclear program and the broader Middle East, with significant implications for global security.

By Aghakazim Guliyev