"Azerbaijan can solve by force issues derailed by Armenia"
Russian expert Daria Grevtsova in touch with Caliber.Az
INTERVIEWS 13 August 2022 - 17:59
Caliber.Az presents an interview with Daria Grevtsova, the deputy director of the Russian Institute of Political Research.
- What is your attitude to the recent "Revenge" operation carried out by Azerbaijan in response to Armenia's provocation in Karabakh?
- Azerbaijan very tactfully and confidently showed Armenians that all provocations will be met with a substantive response. The military operation "Revenge" was very successful and showed Armenians that if such provocations continue, Azerbaijan will move forward and that it will not stop at its current positions in Karabakh. Therefore, Armenia must consider whether they are satisfied with this course of events. Everyone understands that it is necessary to adhere to the agreements, respectively, Armenia must withdraw all armed formations from Karabakh, as it is stated in the paragraphs of the trilateral statement of November 2020. Otherwise, Azerbaijan can forcefully solve the issues that Armenia tries to derail.
So far, Azerbaijan is trying to resolve all issues through peaceful diplomacy and negotiations, and Armenia had better take advantage of this opportunity. As for the ongoing provocations, in my opinion, they are designed to put Azerbaijan and Russia at odds so that Russian soldiers fight on the side of Armenia against Azerbaijan. This is supposedly a cunning move, thanks to which Armenians hope to regain Karabakh. In reality, this is quite a stupid move, because Russia understands the whole essence of what is happening in Karabakh and soberly assesses the situation.
- What conclusions should Yerevan draw from President Aliyev's yesterday interview?
- Yerevan must realize that there can be no autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians, which they dream of. As President Aliyev said, Armenians will be integrated into Azerbaijani society and will have the same rights as Azerbaijanis and other people living in Azerbaijan. Accordingly, the trilateral agreements should be adhered to and implemented. For Armenia, this will be the most correct step. Aliyev's messages mean that Armenia must stop the hate propaganda that it conducts against Azerbaijan. This propaganda must be eliminated, and the Azerbaijani leader urges Pashinyan to do that.
- What causes the latest anti-Russian hysteria in Armenia? Who foments it?
- Pashinyan is behind the anti-Russian hysteria in Armenia since he received $120 million from the US two weeks ago during the CIA director's visit to Yerevan. The CIA's cunning plan is to make Russia and Türkiye quarrel by involving Armenia. The United States is very annoyed that Türkiye has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions of the West, therefore, with the help of Armenia, Washington expects to continue provocations in Karabakh in order to involve Russian peacekeepers and Türkiye in them. All this is done with the expectation of new clashes, which will break up Türkiye and Russia. It is no doubt that Russia is aware of this devious US plan. Russia has been closely watching the anti-Russian hysteria that has been unfolding all year long and has been drawing relevant conclusions. This is mostly due to the fact that Armenia is actively looking to the West and being fed by US handouts. Russia is monitoring the situation in Armenia and the region as a whole since security and stability on its borders is a fundamentally important task for Moscow.
- Do you think the increased revanchist sentiments in Armenia could lead to a new war in Karabakh?
- If the revanchist forces start a war in Karabakh, they will be doomed to failure, because the successes of the Azerbaijani Army, its strength and power, and of course the way it brilliantly conducted the Second Karabakh War, are obvious. Armenia actually has nothing to counter Azerbaijan, Yerevan does not have such weapons and the strength of the army, which Baku has. Therefore, a new Karabakh war is in principle difficult to implement, even the revanchist forces in Armenia understand that they will lose it. Accordingly, through lobbying and some "soft" technologies, the Armenians will set Russia against Azerbaijan. I think they will continue provocations in Karabakh and try to make Azerbaijan and Russia quarrel through the Russian media.
- What are the prospects for Armenia to open transport communications, in particular the Zangazur corridor?
- There is certainly a prospect of opening the Zangazur corridor, although Armenia is slowing down this process. At the same time, I do not rule out that at any moment it may begin to implement the trilateral agreements. At this stage, this is hindered by sufficiently strong revanchist forces in the country, so Pashinyan is still afraid to take any real steps to unblock transport communications. But as President Ilham Aliyev said, the Zangazur corridor should work in the same way as the Lachin corridor, which means that there is definitely a prospect of its opening. It is possible that Pashinyan will start unblocking transport communications in the region in the near future, including the Zangezur corridor, as it is economically beneficial for Armenia itself and promises significant benefits to it.
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