Russia's attack on Ukraine showed that Finland needs stronger deterrence, expert says
Caliber.Az from Helsinki

INTERVIEWS  01 December 2022 - 16:32

Caliber.Az had an interview with the Finnish historian and political analyst Oula Silvennoinen.

- So, Finland is rushing in full sails to join NATO. What was the main trigger for Helsinki to part with the neutral status after decades?

- Behind this decision was Russia's attack on Ukraine. It was really enough to make the vast majority of Finns, as well as political parties, favor applying for membership in the Alliance. It was also important that it could be done together with Sweden, our traditional partner, and close neighbor. Many Finns also understood that it would not be good for Finland to remain on the sidelines while Sweden joined the EU.

- Did opinion polls really show that the majority of Finns after February 2022 began to support the country's membership in NATO?

- I think it is safe to say that the majority of the population was in favor of joining NATO. Polls conducted before the decision to join NATO showed a significant preponderance of public opinion, and the decision was passed in parliament by an overwhelming majority.

- Is Russia a genuine threat to Finland? Could Moscow attack your country?

- After World War II, Finland retained a substantial military force, and confidence in its ability to defend Finland has probably never been as high among the population as it is now. Nevertheless, the attack on Ukraine has shown that Russia is totally unpredictable, and Finland needs stronger deterrence.

I would also say that for Russia, Finland, although a former part of the Russian Empire, is a less important detail compared to Ukraine, which is obviously seen as a vital aspect of the revival of the empire under Putin.

- Moscow has already stated that the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO will require reciprocal steps from Russia... How does Finland react to such threatening statements from Moscow?

- Finland has already made it clear to Russia that it will stand its ground and does not take threats very well. In addition, Russia's ability to strike back on anything other than a symbolic level may now also be questioned. Militarily, Russia has enough to do and does not need any new enemies, and economically, it has less and less leverage over Finland.

- Will Helsinki be able to reach an agreement with Ankara, which has put forward a number of requirements without which it will not give its consent to Finland's (and Sweden's) NATO membership?

- Finland (together with Sweden) has just completed another round of talks with Türkiye at the NATO foreign ministers' summit. Hungary has promised to ratify the agreement in February. Türkiye has not yet given a date. The Finnish side hopes that Türkiye will ratify the treaty before the parliamentary elections in April, especially since Ankara is also under pressure from other members of the bloc. But we will have to wait and see what happens. Negotiations, of course, are still possible.

Caliber.Az