ISW: Kremlin identifies potential culprits for Ukraine counteroffensives

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Ukraine's temporarily occupied regions was probably aimed at publicly identifying potential scapegoats ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Putin received briefings from Commander of Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, Commander of the Dnepr Group of Forces Colonel General Oleg Makarevich, and other unnamed military commanders regarding the situation along the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia frontlines, Caliber.Az reports, citing the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Russian leader also met with Colonel General Alexander Lapin and other unnamed top-ranking officers to discuss the situation on the Luhansk frontline, the report says.

As ISW analysts suggest, Putin likely deliberately singled out Teplinsky and Makarevich as commanders responsible for southern Ukraine, and Lapin as a commander overseeing the Luhansk direction.

“Putin, Kremlin sources, and military bloggers have been increasingly discussing the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the Kremlin is likely preparing the domestic information space for either military failures or the defeat of the counteroffensive threat,” the institute assessed.

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive during his visit to occupied Kherson and Luhansk oblasts.
• Putin’s visit was likely intended to identify scapegoats ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensives publicly.
• Putin’s demonstrative meetings with Teplinsky, Makarevich, and Lapin likely confirm another change in military command and possibly within the Kremlin’s inner circle.
• Select members of the “Club of Angry Patriots” advocate for a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or pursues peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West.
• Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu met to discuss strategic partnership and military cooperation in Moscow on April 18.
• The Russian State Duma approved a series of amendments to the Russian Criminal Code on April 18 to encourage domestic self-censorship and repress the Russian public.
• Russian authorities detained Russian public relations specialist Yaroslav Shirshikov, an associate of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, in Yekaterinburg on April 18.
• The Russian Immortal Regiment Central Headquarters announced the cancellation of the annual Immortal Regiment Victory Day march, likely to reduce public discussion of war dead.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue defensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to integrate proxy formations with conventional Russian forces.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia under healthcare and rehabilitation schemes.
• Belarus may begin economically supporting Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast with a patronage system.