ISW: Ukraine's counterattacks complicate Russia's unblocking of "Wagnerites" in Bakhmut

Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut. 

Caliber.Az reports citing the daily assessment of the Russia-Ukraine war by the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces continue to hand over positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) and withdraw from the city.

Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on May 26 that the MoD is fulfilling its agreement by actively deploying regular Russian units to Wagner-held positions in Bakhmut city. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner is conducting an organised withdrawal from Bakhmut and reiterated that the Russian MoD will fully control the city and its surrounding areas by June 1.

A Russian milblogger published footage of Prigozhin visiting Russian rear positions where Wagner forces are allegedly withdrawing to.

 ISW has not observed visual confirmation of regular Russian forces taking up Wagner positions in Bakhmut itself or that Wagner is leaving the city. ISW has recently observed footage purporting to show elements of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DNR) 123rd Brigade, likely previously deployed near Siversk, operating in the Bakhmut area, and “DNR” forces may be replacing Wagner formations.

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar reported that regular Russian units have replaced Wagner units in Bakhmut’s suburbs, likely referring to areas on the flanks around Bakhmut. Malyar claimed that Ukrainian forces still control positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city and that Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut city itself.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).

“A prominent milblogger claimed that Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka caused elements of the ‘Veterany’ private military company [PMC] to retreat up to a kilometre from their previously held positions in the area,” the report claims.  

Besides, it was reported that milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces captured elevated positions along the E40 (Bakhmut to Slovyansk) highway near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and that fighting is ongoing in the area.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces may struggle to conduct a relief in place of Wagner forces in Bakhmut, and successful limited and localised Ukrainian counterattacks will likely complicate their ability to do so.

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces continue to hand over positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Defence Ministry (MoD) and withdraw from the city.
• Ukrainian sources claim that Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations around the city continues to decrease.
• Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike across Ukraine on May 25 and 26.
• The Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favourable to Russia.
• The Wagner Group reportedly exchanged 106 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for an unspecified number of Russian POWs on May 25, suggesting that Wagner may have conducted the exchange independently of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine.
• Russian officials are continuing to form new volunteer formations to defend Russian regions that border Ukraine.
• Russian occupation officials continuing attempts to erase Ukrainian cultural heritage by looting Ukrainian artifacts.