Ankara, Washington offer Yerevan olive branch
Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

INTERVIEWS  11 March 2024 - 15:25

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have pledged to work to advance the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to a statement following the meeting of the US-Türkiye Strategic Mechanism in Washington.

"On the South Caucasus, Secretary Blinken and Minister Fidan committed to work together to promote a balanced and lasting peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and concurred that this would promote regional stability, cooperation, and welfare," says a statement published on the US State Department's website.

Whether these joint efforts by Türkiye and the United States can succeed, arouse interest.  What should they convince Yerevan of in order to bring the signing of a final peace treaty with Azerbaijan closer? After all, the situation in the world is not simple, and perhaps we should hurry up with the solution of this issue in the interests of the entire South Caucasus and not only our region.

Well-known foreign analysts respond to these questions from Caliber.Az.

Irish political historian Patrick Walsh notes that it would be disingenuous to assume that any power outside the South Caucasus will contribute to the peace process without caring about its own interests.

"A good example of this is France, which has a political and economic interest in supporting Armenia. In the case of Türkiye, its goals can be summarized as helping Azerbaijan establish a stable settlement with Armenia that would be beneficial to the region and Armenian-Turkish relations.

The US on the other hand, will seek to preserve the Pashinyan government in order to reduce Russia's sphere of influence in Armenia," Walsh said.

According to him, in many respects the interests of Türkiye and the US coincide here, but not in everything.

"The world is currently in a state of change. There is no doubt that the unipolar world with a single hegemon is giving way to a multipolar world. This can be seen in Türkiye's flexible foreign policy. There also remains a big question about the West's commitment to helping Kyiv, especially if Trump wins in November. A defeat for Ukraine would have huge consequences, as it would also be a defeat for the West. These factors make predictions about the future very difficult indeed. The global landscape is changing in a way that it hasn't changed since 1990, and before that, since 1945," the Irish historian said.

He thinks that the US will put pressure on Yerevan to sign an agreement with Azerbaijan.

"However, when concluding the agreement, Washington will have one problem related to the Zangazur corridor. It is not in the interests of the US because the protection of the corridor by Federal Security Service (FSB) officers will be perceived hostilely. Thus, US influence may be directed against this part of the agreement, while it is very much in the interests of Türkiye and Russia. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if this aspect of the overall peace treaty is the most problematic and hindering the final settlement. It will be even more interesting to see how this problem is addressed," Walsh noted.

A Kyrgyz political scientist, Associate Professor of the OSCE Academy Emil Djuraev thinks that interests of Ankara and Washington in a final peace settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a very necessary component for peace.

"Türkiye is a key player, and its role is even more important than that of the United States. I cannot comment in detail on what exactly Yerevan or Baku should accept or agree to, but one thing is clear: both sides must make every effort to build mutual trust, which at the moment is too little.  

With a lack of trust, it is understandably risky for the parties - Yerevan, for example - to compromise. With the assistance of major parties, such as the US and Türkiye, it is possible to achieve this, to increase the level of mutual trust. It is not possible to build peace at the expense of inequality of power,"  Djuraev noted.

According to Oleksandr Kraev, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", now is the moment when the Americans have something to offer Armenians, and therefore they have something to press on.

"We see that now official Yerevan is breaking off virtually all its military, political and economic relations with Moscow and is starting to look for new allies. And the Americans showed Yerevan their readiness for contact already several years ago. Just after the Second Karabakh War, we saw that the Americans were interested in communicating with Yerevan in order to pull it out of Russia's orbit," Kraev underlined.

Now Macron is starting to do the same, by the way, he added.

“Therefore, when asked whether Blinken and Fidan can offer something favorable to Yerevan, we can answer that they absolutely can. First, it is full-fledged economic cooperation. Because Türkiye, as one of the most vital actors influencing the South Caucasus region in general, has a lot to offer economically. Secondly, the Americans can offer military cooperation. This includes general trainings, in which Yerevan has already participated, as well as weapons, technology and intelligence. There is a lot of additional stuff that Yerevan needs after the break with Russia. And, of course, it is a certain access to the world arena. Because now we see that Yerevan, after leaving Moscow's orbit, despite the willingness of Western forces to cooperate with it, cannot yet say that it is an absolutely subjective and strong player on the international arena. Therefore, this place can be provided by the United States," the expert said.

But it is clear that in case Yerevan does not want to compromise, to make some agreements, all these wonderful and generous gifts that Fidan and Blinken can bring to Armenia will certainly disappear very quickly, he emphasized.

"And then Yerevan will have to achieve all this on its own, which will be very, very difficult for it to implement in the current situation," Kraev concluded.

Caliber.Az