Ankara's pragmatism in Armenia-Türkiye relations
    Monitoring Baku's role in negotiations

    INTERVIEWS  06 June 2024 - 15:36

    Vadim Mansurov

    Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated in the National Assembly that there is a very positive dialogue in Armenia- Türkiye relations. He mentioned the existence of agreements between the two countries, expressing regret that certain key agreements have yet to be implemented due to external factors. Mirzoyan emphasized Armenia's expectation for Türkiye, to honor these agreements, affirming Armenia's readiness to sustain and build upon this constructive dialogue.

    What was Mirzoyan pointing out? And at what stage today is the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations? Caliber.Az asked foreign experts to respond to these questions.

    According to Turkish political analyst Kerim Has, one side of the coin is that Ankara draws conclusions by monitoring the effectiveness of negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. The other side of the coin is that it is somewhat easier for Yerevan to dialogue with Ankara than with Baku.

    "First of all, because at the moment there are no fundamental contradictions between the parties: there are no specific territorial claims and disagreements, while this issue has not yet been fully resolved between Azerbaijan and Armenia and it will not be finalized until at least the process of border delimitation and demarcation is over.

    At the same time, there are historical ties and a vast Armenian diaspora in Türkiye, which has always interacted with Armenia, even during the period of the latter's complete isolation until 2020. All this is the engine of dialogue. Armenia is interested in the Turkish market and is ready to actively interact with it as soon as the opportunity arises. In fact, for this purpose, it is just necessary to open a border and customs point between the countries,” the Turkish expert noted.

    All these factors, according to Has, give Yerevan the opportunity to assume that it can influence Türkiye’s policy towards Armenia. But here, of course, not everything is so simple - Ankara has its own algorithm of decision-making to promote this process.

    "Meanwhile, it is obvious that Yerevan now needs to restore full-fledged relations with Ankara much more than it did before the 44-day war. Armenia's political and economic weight in the region and beyond has fallen dramatically. The results of the 44-day war and the tendency to sever ties with Russia and move closer to the West are also having an impact.

    In this context, Yerevan badly needs to diversify its trade and economic routes directly in the region - the West is far away in one way or another, and it cannot, and does not undertake to address all topical problems, even if Yerevan goes for a complete break in relations with Moscow. Where to look for an alternative, apart from establishing self-evident relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye?” the pundit wonders.

    Therefore, according to Has, despite the presence of a certain Turkophobia in Armenia, the paradox is that it is Türkiye that is the bridge to the West for Armenia, if not even the very embodiment of the West in the region.  

    "Türkiye, provided the borders are opened, will become the most important partner for Yerevan if Armenia, for example, has to leave the EAEU. And this could happen quite suddenly - Yerevan is well aware of this. Russia may at some point decide to decisively sever many ties with Armenia - such a scenario cannot be ruled out. At the same time, Türkiye is gradually filling the existing political and  economic voids in the South Caucasus while Russia is busy with the war in Ukraine. As is well known, a holy place is never empty.

    Nevertheless, within the new geopolitical reality, Türkiye also needs investment. The economic crisis has a noticeable impact on Ankara's policies, and peace with Armenia is also needed as an opportunity for Türkiye to attract foreign investment. Which will be an important sign for Western countries, their investments, remove the prejudice and influence of France and other Western countries on relations with Türkiye.

    But, of course, everything here depends on the relations between Baku and Yerevan. Geopolitical alliance with Baku is primary for Ankara. However, if a peace treaty is signed between Baku and Yerevan, Turkish-Armenian economic relations will develop,” Khas noted.


    At the same time, according to Renat Savin, a Russian political scientist, and expert on the South Caucasus, Ankara still links all relations with Armenia in the context of negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.

    “Yes, we are witnessing the development of relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Despite the seemingly frozen official relations between Türkiye and Armenia, there is trade turnover and migration bridges. Partially, the trade turnover takes place through third countries, but it is very tangible and extremely important for Armenia. In fact, no matter how rabidly Turkophobic Armenia may seem at first glance, Armenians rely almost entirely on the Turkish market, and the turnover is only growing. It is expected that as soon as the borders are opened, the trade turnover will immediately soar to the several billion dollars mark.

    In fact, Ankara and Yerevan are in many ways already prepared for such a development, but so far the borders are still locked. And this is directly related to the way Yerevan negotiates with Baku. Here Ankara is very consistent, it carefully monitors the process and, based on the analysis, communicates with Yerevan.

    Such pragmatism, of course, is justified - Ankara understands that the Armenian side, alas, can not always be trusted, so the main agreements that Mirzoyan talks about are exactly what Ankara promises to implement as soon as Baku and Yerevan sign a peace treaty. First of all, it is the full opening of the border, launch of cargo and passenger traffic in both directions,” Savin concluded.


    Subscribe to our Telegram channel

Read also

"Insult to American intellect" Analyst on democrats’ denial of Biden's health concerns

22 July 2024 - 14:48

Armenia - untrustworthy partner for any nation globally Expert insights on Caliber.Az

22 July 2024 - 10:24

Azerbaijan's stand against neo-colonialism garners global attention Political analysts laud Baku's diplomatic initiative

21 July 2024 - 12:27

Foreign influence undermines Armenia's sovereignty Expert opinions

20 July 2024 - 13:29

“Armenia will turn into an EU colony” Expert insights on Caliber.Az

20 July 2024 - 11:46

Armenia: A pawn of external influence in the South Caucasus Pundit assesses destabilizing factors in the region

18 July 2024 - 15:10
Latest news

    Global renewable energy growth overstated by China’s dominance

    23 July 2024 - 07:03

    Vienna tops Global Liveability Index for third consecutive year

    23 July 2024 - 05:04

    Grand canyon and Antarctica cruises shine in latest bucket list rankings

    23 July 2024 - 03:05

    Expedition to Madagascar’s Makira Forest yields rediscovery of rare species

    23 July 2024 - 01:03

    Japan debates nuclear arms in face of North Korean and Chinese threats

    22 July 2024 - 23:03

    Iran's president-elect ready to revive nuclear deal - ex-foreign minister

    22 July 2024 - 21:05

    Iran, Russia launch joint maritime security drills in Caspian Sea

    22 July 2024 - 20:51

    Egypt & Azerbaijan forge ahead with bilateral cooperation

    22 July 2024 - 20:35

    Türkiye expands influence in Africa with strategic partnerships and soft power

    22 July 2024 - 20:17

    Armenia strengthens ties with EU amid strained relations with Russia

    22 July 2024 - 20:01

    WB reportedly signals readiness to renew cooperation with Russia

    22 July 2024 - 19:46

    Kazakhstan, Iran set to bolster relations

    22 July 2024 - 19:30

    Azerbaijan offers 10 academic grants to Kazakh students for 2024/2025

    22 July 2024 - 19:14

    US political turmoil stalls sanctions relief talks with Iran, says diplomat

    22 July 2024 - 18:57

    Azerbaijan slams EU military aid to Armenia, warns of rising regional tension

    22 July 2024 - 18:41

    Germany's FM backs stationing of missiles in country to address Russian threat

    22 July 2024 - 18:39

    Hungary, Slovakia seek European Commission's intervention in oil transit dispute

    22 July 2024 - 18:25

    Israel confirms deaths of hostages held by Hamas


    22 July 2024 - 18:10

    Trump’s vice-presidential pick Vance stirs alarm in Europe

    What’s behind the panic?

    22 July 2024 - 18:05

    US deploys strategic bombers to Romania for enhanced NATO integration

    22 July 2024 - 17:55

    US, Japanese, South Korean ministers to discuss growing threats from North Korea

    22 July 2024 - 17:41

    Five presidents, 10 Speakers to attend Iran president-elect's inauguration

    22 July 2024 - 17:37

    Trump vs. Biden: Accelerating or freezing the Ukraine conflict?

    In the footsteps of a real strategy

    22 July 2024 - 17:34

    Iranian leader accuses nations that impose sanctions under false pretenses


    22 July 2024 - 17:23

    Lithuanian president appoints new prime minister

    Instructs to form government

    22 July 2024 - 17:08

    Azerbaijan’s strategic pivot: Impact of new alliance with China

    Baku’s shifting ties: A challenge to Western influence?

    22 July 2024 - 16:54

    Economic impacts of new immigration restrictions

    Caliber.Az on YouTube

    22 July 2024 - 16:45

    US and EU attempt to maintain influence over Armenia through grants, says analyst

    22 July 2024 - 16:40

    Türkiye continues to eliminate terrorists in Syria, Iraq


    22 July 2024 - 16:27

    Azerbaijani Air Force pilots honing combat skills

    Sky training success/VIDEO

    22 July 2024 - 16:12

    Azerbaijan clears over 1,600 ha of mines, explosive ordnance in liberated lands

    Weekly data

    22 July 2024 - 15:59

    Armenia playing role of pawn in someone else’s game

    Obvious hypocrisy of Yerevan and its patrons

    22 July 2024 - 15:45

    Unpacking Türkiye’s role in Africa

    New partner vs old enmity

    22 July 2024 - 15:31

    Kremlin: NATO military expansion poses threat to Russia

    22 July 2024 - 15:17

    MP: Armenia's state debt exceeds $12 billion

    22 July 2024 - 15:03

    "Insult to American intellect"

    Analyst on democrats’ denial of Biden's health concerns

    22 July 2024 - 14:48

    New Caledonia: Kanaks to continue struggle for independence

    Article by The Diplomat

    22 July 2024 - 14:46

    Western Azerbaijan Community Spokesperson highlights historical injustices

    In webinar with US Global Policy Institute

    22 July 2024 - 14:33

    Baku Initiative Group pledges support to Dutch colonies

    22 July 2024 - 14:18

    Russian pundit: West trying to interfere in South Caucasus affairs through Armenia

    22 July 2024 - 14:03

All news