AfD surge puts Germany’s political firewall under pressure

Germany’s political establishment is facing a new challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), after the party secured 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. In an opinion piece, The Economist argues that the result should serve as a warning to Germany’s centrist parties and force them to reconsider how they respond to the AfD’s growing support.

The result has raised the possibility that the AfD could become the first populist-right party to govern a German state since World War II. The Economist notes that the party has been classified as extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence service and includes politicians associated with far-right and neo-Nazi movements.

The AfD's path to power in Saxony-Anhalt remains uncertain. According to The Economist, it would need either fragile alliances or defections from rival parties, while internal divisions and governing difficulties could also weaken its position.

However, the newspaper argues that the significance of the election extends beyond the eastern state. The AfD has also performed strongly in wealthier western states, while nationally it has built a substantial lead over the centre-right CDU/CSU, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

For decades, Germany's mainstream parties have relied on the Brandmauer, or “firewall”, to prevent the AfD from entering governing coalitions. The strategy was intended to isolate the party while mainstream parties addressed the concerns driving voters toward it.

The Economist argues that the strategy has instead coincided with the AfD becoming more radical. It points to the party's calls for “remigration”, closer relations with Russia and withdrawal from the European Union and the euro.

The newspaper says Germany's political centre should respond by continuing with economic and structural reforms rather than allowing electoral setbacks to produce political paralysis. Merz's coalition with the Social Democrats has already approved reforms involving areas including taxation and pensions, but disagreements within the government threaten to undermine them.

According to The Economist, abandoning those reforms could reinforce the AfD's argument that Germany's traditional parties are incapable of governing effectively. With signs of economic recovery emerging, it argues that the government should build on that momentum.

The newspaper also questions whether the CDU's rigid opposition to any future cooperation with the AfD should remain unchanged. The Economist does not advocate bringing the current AfD into government, but suggests that the CDU could eventually consider cooperation if the party were to abandon its most radical positions and politicians.

Such a shift, it argues, could strengthen comparatively moderate forces within the AfD, although the party's current strength and increasingly radical character make such an outcome difficult.

Finally, The Economist questions Merz's leadership. While acknowledging his support for Ukraine, efforts to strengthen Germany's armed forces and reform agenda, the newspaper describes him as a weak communicator and manager. It cites an approval rating of just 13% and argues that continued poor electoral performances could intensify pressure on the CDU to consider alternatives.

For The Economist, the AfD's rise represents more than an eastern German electoral phenomenon. It is a test of whether Germany's political centre can adapt before frustration with established parties further strengthens the far right.

By Sabina Mammadli