American analysts: US and allies cannot guarantee Armenia's security

RAND Corporation political analysts Joe Haberman and Paul Cormarie discussed their analysis "The U.S. Can't Guarantee Armenia's Security" and Armenia's security issues in a conversation with Professor Arthur Khachikian, a doctoral candidate in political science at Stanford University in the United States.

Caliber.Az reports that the US analysts' deliberations were circulated in Armenian media.

According to political analysts, the US and its allies have failed to provide adequate security guarantees to Armenia. In a conversation with Khachikian, the analysts pondered on Armenia's difficulties in finding a new security guarantor, as Russia has not fulfilled that role effectively. While it would be ideal for Armenia to provide its own security, the US should not necessarily be expected to fulfil the role of a security guarantor due to the constraints and interests of both countries.

"We have indicated that Armenia has had difficulty in choosing a new security guarantor that can guarantee its security in the event of any confrontation or problems in the region. We see tensions rising and as Joe said, Armenia is trying to diversify its relationship because its security guarantor, Russia, has not fulfilled that role as we have seen in several events. If you look at the article that we wrote, we see that Armenia is facing serious difficulties in trying to find a new guarantor. It would be ideal if Armenia could provide its own security. In an ideal world, this could be done in a number of ways. And perhaps the US could provide security assistance to help Armenia along that path. But we don't think that the US should necessarily play the role of a guarantor of Armenia's security in the future, because there are some limitations based on the interests of both the US and Armenia," Paul Cormarie said.

John Haberman, in turn, emphasizes the need to address the immediate and imminent threat to Armenia's security. He asserts that reliance on security assistance or agreements with France, the United States, or India alone cannot contain the enemy. Instead, diplomacy should be prioritized, with support for peace talks and efforts to ease tensions. Haberman suggests enhancing Armenia's security by facilitating the transfer and sale of military technology, air defence capabilities, and anti-drone capabilities. Additional training for reliable junior officers and the creation of a less corrupt security force are also recommended to strengthen Armenia's security. The US government can also play a role in supporting the resolution of the complicated relationship between Armenia and Türkiye and encourage a less hostile relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Haberman pointed out that the US and its allies are not politically inclined to provide Armenia with security guarantees similar to those outlined in the NATO Treaty. Armenia must understand this reality and incorporate it into its strategic thinking. The situation poses a challenge for Armenia's leadership, and any assistance provided by the US mustn't be conditional. The only thing the United States can do is to ensure that any assistance the United States provides to Armenia is not an all-or-nothing ultimatum. The US and its European allies should abandon the binary approach of categorizing countries as either enemies or friends, as it is not in Armenia's national or security interests. Maintaining a balance between security partners will require extensive diplomatic work, and Armenia must carefully consider the extent to which it can diversify its security system.