American journalist: NATO's Stoltenberg not antagonistic to Baku's interests

In an interview with Armenian media, American journalist Michael Vasyura provided insights into Russia's probable reaction to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's recent visit to the Caucasus.

"Speaking about Russia's reaction, Moscow can simply ignore NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's visit to the Caucasus. It has long been clear to the Kremlin that both Azerbaijan and Armenia have relations with NATO," Vasyura said, Caliber.Az reports.

Vasyura elaborated on the dynamics between Azerbaijan, NATO, and Russia, noting, “Azerbaijan cooperates very closely with Türkiye, which is a NATO member, so perhaps there will be some kind of statement from the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova saying that it is terrible that the NATO Secretary General came to the zone of our sphere of influence, but this will just words and nothing more.

The expert speculated on possible reactions from Russian officials, suggesting that statements from figures like Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry might express disapproval but hold little weight: “It is not very important for Moscow that the NATO Secretary General came to the Caucasus, because NATO does not have any levers of influence on the situation in the Caucasus region. Stoltenberg can talk about energy supplies against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine; it is clear that almost no one in Europe buys energy and resources from Russia due to sanctions. Consequently, Azerbaijan has become a very important gas supplier to Europe, and therefore they need to strengthen this relationship against the backdrop of Europe's dependence on Azerbaijani gas. Stoltenberg certainly does not say or do anything that goes against the interests of Baku.”

Highlighting NATO's limited influence in the Caucasus, Vasyura stated: “In principle, NATO has no plans in the Caucasus, they have no levers to influence the situation in the Caucasus, none of the Western countries send troops there even as peacekeepers, no one in Europe wants there to be, roughly speaking, a second Afghanistan. I realise that the political situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is much more stable than in Afghanistan, but nevertheless, no one in Europe is interested in sending European soldiers to a new region.”

Concluding, Vasyura emphasized NATO's non-interventionist stance, stating: “Why Stoltenberg's visit to the Caucasus started with Baku, I assume that maybe NATO Secretary General wanted to hear first Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and then negotiate with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, based on the information available from Azerbaijan, but, in principle, the order of visits does not affect the situation, because NATO cannot influence the situation in the Caucasus in any way. Stoltenberg is travelling as a representative of Europe, as a representative of the Alliance, but neither Europe nor NATO are ready to intervene in the conflict.”