Arab League vs. US and Israel: Diverging visions for Gaza’s future Israeli experts on Caliber.Az

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, which was approved by the Arab League (AL), CNN reports. The AL endorsed Cairo’s plan, which envisions Gaza’s reconstruction over five years at a cost of $53 billion. During this period, the territory would be governed by technocrats. The plan also calls for the deployment of peacekeepers in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state.

Washington stated that the plan approved by the AL does not take into account the fact that Gaza is currently uninhabitable. U.S. President Donald Trump believes that Gaza’s reconstruction should proceed without the involvement of Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organisation in the U.S. and the European Union. He intends to continue consultations on this issue.

The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs also criticised the Arab League’s plan. The ministry stated that the adopted declaration does not take into account the reality that has emerged after October 7, 2023. The declaration from the League does not mention the attacks by Palestinian groups on southern Israel, nor does it condemn the terrorists. "Now, with President Trump's idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged!" said the Israeli Ministry spokesperson.

Hamas, on the other hand, only welcomed the part of the plan that rejects the U.S. demand to expel Gaza’s residents.

It’s interesting to consider: who will be able to enforce their vision in this case? Which plan for Gaza’s future is more likely to be implemented — the Arab League’s, or the one proposed by the U.S. and Israel, which involves the possibility of Palestinians relocating from the devastated Gaza Strip? For the latter, it will clearly be necessary to fully dismantle the remnants of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. After all, Hamas still holds Israeli hostages. How can the issue be resolved without executing innocent people at the hands of the Hamas militants holding them?

These are the thoughts shared with Caliber.Az by prominent Israeli analysts.

Military expert and author of the military-analytical YouTube channel, Sergey Auslender, stated that, in his opinion, Trump's plan appears somewhat unrealistic overall.

"Because it doesn’t address two important questions. First, where will the Palestinian Arabs be relocated to?

And second, under whose jurisdiction will the Gaza Strip fall?

As we know, Egypt and Jordan are categorically opposed to accepting their fellow Arabs from Gaza.

As for Egypt’s plan, approved by the Arab League, it is basically meaningless. It feels as though it was created only as a response to Trump’s plan. The main point there is $53 billion. They’ve come up with a figure supposedly required for Gaza’s reconstruction. As long as it's not a round number, it seems more credible. It’s clear that this figure was pulled out of thin air," the analyst believes.

In short, neither plan is good, he says.

"And ultimately, everything now hinges on the presence of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Until Hamas is destroyed in Gaza, it will control the sector. Or Israel will control Gaza, which means its occupation and complete cleansing. No other plan can be implemented until Hamas, which fully controls this territory, is eliminated. So, until its destruction, there’s nothing to talk about," Auslender concludes.

Analyst and journalist Mikhail Gurevich, in turn, stated that there is a complex dilemma between the release of hostages and defeating Hamas.

"And it must be said that this is precisely why many Israelis, opposition figures, and even representatives of the security services have said and continue to say that the hostages must be freed first, and only then should the problem with Hamas be resolved," he said.

"At the same time, addressing the future of Gaza — how Gaza will be structured after the war — is an important issue that has only recently been seriously considered. And here, it’s worth remembering how the previous U.S. administration, as well as the Israeli opposition, called on the government to develop plans for Gaza’s post-war setup. A lot depends on this," the analyst pointed out.

It’s clear, he continued, that no matter whose perspective prevails — the Arab League’s or the U.S.’s — people will continue to live in these territories, and there will have to be efforts to rebuild the sector.

"There will need to be a systematic renovation, a restructuring, essentially of the entire sector. And this will require enormous amounts of money. According to the Arab League’s estimates, over $50 billion. Overall, politicians suggest that the final cost is unlikely to be lower than $100 billion. These are vast sums of money, and it needs to be decided who will control them. Will it be the utterly corrupt leadership of the Palestinian Authority, or the no less corrupt Hamas? If not them, then who will oversee it? Accordingly, if it’s, for example, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, what mechanisms will they have to control the spending of this money? And moreover, who guarantees them that, in 3, 5, or maybe even 10 years, all their investments won’t turn to dust once again because Hamas decides to launch another attack on Israel?

This is a complex set of questions, and therefore it’s difficult to say which viewpoint will prevail — the U.S., Israel, or the Arab League. Essentially, the Americans argue that Palestinians today are the only people in the world who are denied the basic right to migrate anywhere else. Neither Egypt nor Jordan will allow them into their territories, and they can’t leave. For example, Sudanese people can flee Sudan. During the Korean War, Koreans fled Korea, Vietnamese fled Vietnam. Some later returned, while others stayed in new territories. But only the Palestinians are deprived of such a basic right — to leave their place of residence, whether temporarily or permanently.

Moreover, their status is unclear. If they are residents of Gaza, then they undoubtedly have every right to live and stay there. However, if they are refugees — and 75-80% of Gaza’s population identifies as refugees — then it is the task of international organizations to resolve their issue. They need to be able to settle somewhere and stop being refugees.

In any case, I believe that none of these viewpoints will prevail. What will emerge is something in between, a compromise. Only through the combined efforts of all parties, including the U.S. and Israel, as well as the Arab countries, can there truly be an effect. And if the conflict can’t be fully resolved, at least it could be frozen for many years," Gurevich concludes.