Armed and doomed: Yerevan chooses war over peace It could be the last...

During an official visit to India, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan made pompous statements in an interview with the local media outlet Wion, claiming that Armenia and Azerbaijan were allegedly close to signing a peace treaty. According to him, the agreements were reached as a result of direct bilateral negotiations. He also noted that a few months ago, the sides managed to sign and ratify provisions regarding the work of border commissions, which are responsible for the demarcation process between the two countries.

Before analyzing the statements of the Armenian Foreign Minister, it is necessary to understand the real goals of his visit to Bharat. It is noteworthy that in recent years, especially after the 44-day war in Karabakh, contacts at the government level between Armenia and India have noticeably intensified. For Armenia, rapprochement with India is a way to replenish its military arsenal with new types of offensive weapons, while for India, the militarization of Armenia is a tool for expanding its influence in the South Caucasus. Armenian officials have visited India multiple times, and Yerevan's military arsenal has regularly been replenished with armaments.

Last month, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan made a working visit to India, during which he met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, as well as with the Chief of Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, General Anil Chauhan. Following these negotiations, it became known that Armenia was considering new arms purchases from India.

Thus, there is no doubt: the main goal of Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to India is related to further military supplies to Yerevan. Today, India has effectively become one of the key suppliers of armaments to Armenia, a fact highlighted by international media outlets. In February of this year, the Turkish newspaper Star reported that the first major contract, worth approximately $2 billion, was signed between Armenia and India back in 2020. Between 2024 and 2025, Armenia has committed to purchasing arms from India—mainly artillery systems and air defense systems—worth an additional $600 million. Prior to this, Yerevan had already received Indian MArG 155 howitzers and signed a $250 million contract for the supply of Pinaka multiple rocket launchers, anti-tank munitions, and other types of weaponry.

In 2023, the Indian company Kalyani Strategic Systems Limited signed a contract worth $155.5 million for the supply of 155mm artillery pieces to Armenia.

In 2024, Armenia concluded a deal for the supply of Akash surface-to-air missile systems in an unspecified quantity, making it the largest importer of products from the Indian defense industry.

In the context of the militarization of Armenia by India, it is pertinent to recall the following noteworthy fact. Last year, Caliber.Az, citing reliable sources, reported that Indian arms were being delivered to Armenia via Iranian territory. According to available information, the Iranian seaport of Bandar Abbas was receiving military cargo from India, intended for further transportation to Armenia.

The arms shipments were partially declared officially, while others were transported under the guise of civilian goods, which constitutes a serious violation of international trade law and regulations governing logistical activities. In other words, this was a smuggling scheme. The purpose of this "mixed" logistics was to mislead Azerbaijan about the true scale of Armenia's militarization.

What is particularly enraging is the fact that despite such actions, the Armenian authorities continue to claim that military supplies from India are solely intended to strengthen Armenia’s defense capabilities. Specifically, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, in an interview with Wion, stated that these supplies are allegedly not directed against the interests of third countries, in this case, Azerbaijan.

Despite the active militarization, Armenia seeks to present a facade of pacifism to the outside world, hiding its revanchist ambitions. However, there are specific and credible facts that point to the opposite. An analysis of the incoming data, combined with the actions and rhetoric of the Armenian authorities, indicates deliberate preparations for escalation along the border. Taken together, this makes the threat of a new armed conflict more than real.

All of this gives Baku strong grounds for its firm discontent with Armenia's militarization by India. Azerbaijan has repeatedly conveyed to the Indian side that the rearming of the Armenian army and the creation of illusions of a possible revenge by Armenia's military-political leadership are unacceptable. The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, openly warned India about this. In May 2023, while receiving the credentials of the new Indian Ambassador, Sridharan Madhusudhanan, the head of state made it clear that revanchist forces were becoming more active in Armenia, territorial claims against Azerbaijan continued, and Armenia’s rapid militarization was creating new risks for regional security. The President of Azerbaijan raised a pertinent question: if Armenia truly seeks peace, why is it acquiring weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars? This was a clear message to the Indian side: Armenia's militarization is heightening tensions and could lead to new destabilization in the region.

However, as time has shown, neither Armenia nor India have drawn the appropriate conclusions from Baku’s warnings and, in fact, have chosen the path of confrontation. The policies of the Indian government under Narendra Modi contribute to the ignition of a new conflict, which contradicts international law and flagrantly violates the principles of the Bandung Conference and the Non-Aligned Movement, of which India remains a formal member. Armenia, for its part, must understand that a new war with Azerbaijan would mean the collapse of Armenian statehood. Neither Indian nor French weapons will be able to save Yerevan from inevitable defeat, the consequences of which will be final and irreversible.