How Armenia prepares for new war with Azerbaijan Analysis of military purchases

As previously reported by Caliber.Az, Armenia is intensively preparing for a new war with Azerbaijan, which could break out in the coming weeks, especially as reserve training begins in the neighboring country in April. Armenia's active preparations for a large-scale conflict are further highlighted by the systematic rearming of its military, which will be discussed in detail.

Arms purchases and military modernization directly reflect a nation's military strategy. When a country significantly increases its arsenal with a focus on offensive systems, it not only strengthens its defense capabilities but also signals preparations for potential future combat. According to the latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Armenia has significantly accelerated its arms procurement in recent years, especially after its defeat in the 44-day war, shifting its focus from its traditional military partner, Russia, to new suppliers such as France and India.

According to SIPRI data, Armenia began purchasing new weapons as early as 2020, entering into a contract with India for the delivery of four Swathi artillery locating radar systems. These systems are designed to detect enemy artillery positions and adjust counterfire, enabling the effective destruction of firepoints. The first deliveries under this contract were completed in 2021. In 2020, Armenia signed a contract with Russia for the purchase of Mi-17 multipurpose transport helicopters, though the exact number of helicopters remains uncertain. According to SIPRI, the contract involved four units. The contract was fulfilled in 2022. This type of helicopter is actively used for troop transport, medical evacuation, and airborne operations.

In 2022, Armenia expanded its military purchases by acquiring Konkurs-M anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) from India, designed to target armored vehicles at medium range. These ATGMs are developed to destroy armored targets, including modern tanks equipped with dynamic protection. They can be used both from mobile platforms and by infantry units, making them a versatile tool for combating enemy armored vehicles. However, SIPRI does not specify the exact number of missiles delivered, and there is no available information on when the deliveries began.

A sharp increase in arms purchases occurred in 2023, during which Armenia signed several major contracts. One of the key deals was the acquisition of Indian Pinaka 214mm multiple rocket launch systems. These systems, similar to Russia's "Smerch" and "Grad," are designed to suppress enemy infantry, armored vehicles, and fortified positions. Armenia ordered 24 of these systems. Although SIPRI notes that deliveries have not yet begun, several Armenian and Indian sources reported last fall that the first batches of Pinaka had already arrived in Armenia. In addition, a contract was signed for the purchase of three French-made Ground Master-200 long-range radar stations. These radar systems are intended for airspace surveillance and air defense system management, allowing for timely responses to potential enemy airstrikes.

Additionally, Armenia purchased 24 Bastion armored personnel carriers from France, with deliveries completed in 2023. This type of armored vehicle is used for both personnel transport and supporting mobile combat groups. Furthermore, Yerevan ordered 15 Indian-made Akash SAMs (Surface-to-Air Missiles) to strengthen the country’s air defense capabilities. However, SIPRI data does not yet provide information on the start of deliveries, although Indian media, specifically The New Indian Express, reported in November 2024 that Armenia is already receiving these systems.

Another significant purchase involved 400 Akash-1 surface-to-air missiles, which are intended to complement the Akash air defense systems, creating a layered air defense structure.

An intriguing contract was signed in 2024, involving the acquisition of 36 French-made CAESAR 155mm self-propelled howitzers. These highly mobile artillery systems can strike targets at distances of up to 40 kilometers, making them an effective tool for both counter-battery fire and offensive operations. While deliveries under this contract have not yet started, the very fact of its conclusion indicates Armenia's serious intentions to strengthen its artillery capabilities.

An analysis of these purchases reveals that Yerevan is consistently increasing its military potential, not limiting itself solely to defensive systems. While the procurement of radars and surface-to-air missile systems can be justified by the need to protect airspace, the acquisition of multiple rocket launchers, self-propelled artillery, and armored vehicles points to preparations for offensive actions. Particularly telling is the inclusion of modern artillery systems and precision strike weapons, such as the CAESAR 155mm and Pinaka 214mm, which are designed for deep fire strikes against enemy positions.

Another significant aspect is the shift in the vector of military cooperation. Whereas Armenia previously relied primarily on arms supplies from Russia, it is now turning to France and India. This shift not only indicates a desire to diversify sources of military assistance but also suggests potential political changes in Yerevan's security strategy. France, for its part, has been actively supporting Armenia on a diplomatic level and, as evidenced by the contracts, is providing serious military support. India, meanwhile, is increasing its presence in the arms market, actively promoting its air defense systems and multiple rocket launchers, making it an attractive partner for countries looking to reduce dependence on traditional suppliers.

All these facts lead to a single logical conclusion: Armenia is not just modernizing and rearming its military, but is systematically preparing for a military conflict, as we have repeatedly pointed out earlier. The pace of arms purchases, the range of equipment, and the expansion of military-technical cooperation indicate that Yerevan is deliberately preparing for a revanche and a new war.