Armenian pundit: West unlikely to confront Baku for Yerevan's sake

Armenian political observer Arman Abovyan has cast doubt on the possibility of Armenia receiving significant security guarantees from the West against Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

Speaking to Armenian media, Abovyan dismissed the notion that Armenia would be granted a comprehensive security package during an anticipated meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and top Western officials, Caliber.Az reports.

Abovyan's remarks come amidst speculation regarding the outcomes of the planned Pashinyan-Blinken-von der Leyen meeting, with some suggesting Armenia could receive assurances of support from Western powers.

"The information being circulated that Armenia will receive a package of security guarantees within the framework of the planned Pashinyan-Blinken-von der Leyen meeting is an immoral information throw-in," Abovyan stated.

Drawing parallels with Ukraine, which received security guarantees from the West but saw little practical impact, Abovyan argued that Western powers are unlikely to directly confront Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

"Even if some guarantees are given to Armenia, it will lead to nothing," Abovyan asserted, emphasizing that the West prioritizes its strategic partnerships with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, particularly in the logistics and energy sectors.

Highlighting statements from key Western figures, Abovyan pointed out that Ursula von der Leyen has emphasized Türkiye and Azerbaijan's significance as strategic partners for the European Union, while Antony Blinken has articulated the West's primary goal of weakening Russian and Iranian influence.

"Ursula von der Leyen, with whom Pashinyan intends to meet, both in Baku, Brussels and other capitals states that Türkiye and Azerbaijan are the EU's main partners in strategic spheres. We are talking about logistics and energy. The second participant of the same meeting - Antony Blinken, directly states that the only goal of the U.S. and the West as a whole is to weaken the positions of the Russians and Iranians,” the pundit underlined.

Furthermore, Abovyan cited French President Emmanuel Macron's characterization of Armenia as a buffer zone, suggesting that Armenia may be perceived as a sacrificial zone in the event of a confrontation between conflicting powers.

“The same Emmanuel Macron, who is seen as our friend, has publicly stated that Armenia is seen as a buffer. In other words, Armenia is seen as a zone that will take the first blow when two conflicting centres collide," the expert said.