Australia faces heightened wildfire risk amid hot, dry conditions

Large parts of Australia are bracing for an elevated wildfire threat this summer, with wine regions, coastal communities and key agricultural areas identified as particularly vulnerable, according to a new seasonal outlook from the Australian and New Zealand National Council for Fire and Emergency Services.

The report warns that southern Victoria, central New South Wales and several regions in Western Australia face increased danger after persistently warmer-than-average conditions dried out vegetation through much of 2025. The assessment comes during an already severe global wildfire year, marked by devastating blazes in Los Angeles, Japan’s largest fire in half a century and Europe’s most destructive wildfire season in two decades, Bloomberg writes. 

Australia’s peak fire season typically begins in September in Queensland, with heightened risks moving southward over the following months. Densely populated areas around Melbourne and Canberra generally face their greatest danger between December and February.

In Victoria, long-term dryness has created conditions ripe for fire, with large amounts of dead and withered vegetation accumulating across the state. The report warns that the region will “likely rapidly transition to a highly flammable condition in January,” highlighting concerns for areas including Kinglake, which was ravaged during the 2009 Black Saturday fires.

Those fires remain the deadliest in Australia’s history, killing 173 people and destroying entire towns. A decade later, the 2019–2020 Black Summer wildfires burned an area roughly the size of the United Kingdom and generated more than $1.5 billion in insurance claims.

Despite the arrival of La Niña—a climate pattern associated with wetter conditions in Australia—the report indicates the system is expected to be weak and short-lived, offering little relief. Forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology show roughly equal chances of above- or below-average rainfall across most of the country between December and February.

Climate change continues to drive more extreme weather across the continent, intensifying the risks posed not only by wildfires but also by storms and flooding. 

By Sabina Mammadli