Ex-Zelenskyy press secretary warns Ukraine faces demographic crisis

Ukraine’s population in territories under Kyiv’s control has fallen to an estimated 20–25 million and continues to decline, Iuliia Mendel, former press secretary to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has warned.

In an article for The Spectator, Mendel said Ukraine had lost more than half of its population since declaring independence from the Soviet Union, with the sharpest decline occurring after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

“Ukraine has lost more than half its population in the 35 years since it declared independence from the Soviet Union. The largest collapse in population has happened since Russia’s full-scale invasion. By the most sober estimates, some 20 to 25 million people remain in the territory Kyiv still controls. Roughly half are of retirement age. At most, four million men are of conscription age. Russia can draw on the recruitment pool of approximately 10 times the number of fighting age men. Waging a war of attrition is therefore national suicide, not valor. Yet this is the strategy that the Zelenskyy government pursues,” she said.

Mendel also pointed to Ukraine’s deteriorating economic situation, arguing that the country has become heavily dependent on Western aid while its public debt has exceeded 110% of GDP. She contrasted this with Russia’s fiscal position and continued energy revenues, claiming that European countries have paid Moscow more than $230 billion for fossil fuels since 2022.

She further described the humanitarian consequences of the war, saying that more than 90% of Ukrainian warehouses had been hit since what she called an “influence operation” this summer, while the country’s energy system had suffered extensive damage.

According to Mendel, civilians in the worst-affected areas are increasingly being told to leave, while people on the front lines without sufficient financial resources or means of transport face displacement.

“Every day Ukraine loses more of its people. Those who want their children to have proper healthcare and education are forced to emigrate. The number of people dying in Ukraine is roughly four times the number of births. The nation is perishing, and yet the war grinds on,” she said.

By Vafa Guliyeva