Azerbaijan insists on dissolution of OSCE Minsk Group Experts weigh in on Armenia's resistance

Yerevan may consider the continuation of the Minsk process primarily within the context of a peace treaty, according to a statement from the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to a query from Radio Liberty.

The station had asked whether Azerbaijan is making the dissolution of the Minsk Group (MG) a condition for signing a peace agreement, why Yerevan opposes the group's dissolution, and if there is a possibility that Armenia might reconsider and jointly with Baku submit a statement to the OSCE requesting the group's dissolution.

The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded succinctly: "The Armenian side may consider continuing the Minsk Process within the framework of a comprehensive settlement of relations, primarily through the signing of a peace treaty."

This response indicates that Armenia still harbors some hope regarding the Minsk Group's potential. However, the group’s relevance is increasingly questioned, as Azerbaijan has long since rejected any further negotiations under its auspices. Azerbaijan has proposed that the parties formally announce their rejection of the Minsk Group's services due to their obsolescence, allowing the OSCE headquarters to make an official decision on its dissolution. Yet, Armenia has been reluctant to proceed with this step. The reasons for this hesitation remain unclear.

In response to Caliber.Az inquiry, prominent Azerbaijani experts have provided their insights on the current situation.

Fikrat Sadikhov, a political scientist and professor at the Western Caspian University, points out that the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears to have overlooked the fact that the OSCE Minsk Group was established to address the Karabakh issue involving both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sadikhov emphasizes that "Nagorno-Karabakh" no longer exists; it has been replaced by the liberated Karabakh region, which is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Over the past 30 years, the Minsk Group has consistently undermined its own credibility and effectiveness, highlighting its utter irrelevance. As a result, Azerbaijan, having reclaimed its land, proposes that the group disband itself. De facto, the Minsk Group no longer holds relevance for Azerbaijan, and steps should be taken to ensure its formal dissolution in both legal and political contexts.

Sadikhov notes that Armenia's reluctance to agree to this proposal stems from several reasons.

"One reason for this may be that the Minsk Group includes France and the United States, countries that Armenia relies on for support. Armenia hopes that their backing could help it navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and strengthen its military. Another reason, I believe, is that Yerevan perceives the Karabakh issue as unresolved. It seems that Armenia still seeks to leverage the 'Karabakh card,' portraying itself as a victim of ethnic cleansing to gain support from Washington, Paris, and international organizations. However, this approach is outdated. Armenia's desires and reality have never aligned, and they continue not to. Our firm stance on the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group is principled and clearly articulated. I believe it is a crucial factor in achieving agreement between the parties," Sadikhov stated.

Azerbaijani political scientist, head of the "South Caucasus" Club of Political Scientists Ilgar Valizada, found it noteworthy that Armenia is effectively insisting on the continuation of the Minsk Group's activities.

"They refer to it as the Minsk Process, but everyone clearly understands that this actually pertains to the OSCE Minsk Group. It's just a play on words. If we consider that this so-called Minsk Process (as Armenia describes it) might continue, it’s possible that old proposals from the Minsk Group could be revived. Specifically, the Madrid Principles might come into play. These principles contain explicit references to the 'status of Nagorno-Karabakh' and the rights of the population there.

However, returning to past frameworks is not an option. We must base our actions on the political realities established after the Second Karabakh War and the local counter-terrorism operations in September 2023. Therefore, the Minsk Process, in any form, should not and cannot continue. Attempts to preserve or modify the Minsk format should be thwarted, as they lack any real foundation," the expert stated.

"Why is Armenia pursuing this? It is because they refuse to accept the current political and legal realities in the region," he explains.

"Armenia aims to reverse the situation and undo certain processes that are currently underway. They cling to outdated political institutions, particularly the OSCE Minsk Group. However, since the Minsk Group has proven ineffective, its activities cannot be revived. The Minsk Process should be forgotten. We need to start afresh, laying the foundation for a new order in the region, focusing on peacebuilding. This foundation should be a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia that resets the conflictual past and serves as a basis for future relations between the two countries. Everything from the conflict period should be left behind. Bringing past grievances into the future is entirely unproductive."

"Unfortunately, Armenia is not the only party interested in maintaining the OSCE Minsk Group. The United States and France see retaining this format as a way to enable institutional interference in regional affairs and manipulate certain processes in the South Caucasus. This is entirely unacceptable. Any facilitators of such policies—like the Minsk Group—must be completely removed from the current peace agenda. Furthermore, the complete cessation of the Minsk Group's formal activities signals that the region is entering a new political and legal reality. This new reality must be recognized with its own institutions and political foundations. Azerbaijan's stance is resolute: the OSCE Minsk Group must cease to exist," Valizada concluded.