Azerbaijani leader’s foreign policy, US official’s talks with Putin, and Iranian president’s initiative Caliber.Az weekly review

Caliber.Az presents another episode of “Sobitiya” (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, featuring a roundup of the week’s top news stories related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN

An international forum titled "Facing the New World Order" was held in both Khankendi and Baku. During the Baku segment of the event, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed participants' questions and shared his insights. As a prelude to the discussion, President Aliyev emphasized that Azerbaijan’s well-calibrated and balanced foreign policy has enabled the country to play a significant role as a geographic, political, economic, and transportation bridge between Central Asia and Europe. In this context, President Aliyev highlighted Azerbaijan’s vital role in ensuring Europe’s energy security.

He recalled the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Baku in July 2022, during which a declaration on strategic partnership in the energy sector was signed.   President Aliyev noted that as a result of Azerbaijan's gas exports, deliveries to Europe have increased by nearly 60 per cent. He also expressed surprise at the EU's energy policy amid intensifying global economic competition—particularly the decision by the European Investment Bank to impose a ban on financing fossil fuel-related projects. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev offered a word of advice to European leaders.

“This embargo on fossil fuel financing must be lifted. Well, they need just to look at what President Trump is doing on fossil fuel and not to be late,” the president said.

At the same time, President Aliyev emphasised Azerbaijan’s growing role in supplying Europe with green energy. 

“We know the demands even in green energy, despite large investments in green energy, still the European Union will be in shortage of electricity, and for that purpose, we are now working on the green energy cable under the Black Sea from Azerbaijan to Romania,” the president said. 

“So, the European Commission should take off its glasses, look at the world from a realistic point of view, and appreciate countries like Azerbaijan, rather than trying to divide the Caucasus into their favorites and those they don't like. They should behave as good partners. We are ready for that,” the president said by outlining Europe’s strategic dependence on Azerbaijan. 

Indeed, Brussels has made numerous missteps in its eagerness to inject ideological motives—often marked by double standards—into its foreign economic policy. Within the EU, it has become customary to put on a brave face amid unfavorable outcomes, creating the illusion of political influence over other nations while attempting to advance the interests of its protégés—in this case, of course, referring to Armenia. 

Just a week ago, the aforementioned Ursula von der Leyen attempted to lecture Baku from the stage of the EU-Central Asia summit on the need for an immediate peace agreement with Armenia, and consequently, the opening of borders—presented as a necessary condition for the implementation of Trans-Caspian projects. In other words, she advancing not only Armenia's interests, but also disregarding the role of Georgia, which, due to its increasingly independent foreign policy, has recently become a thorn in the side of the EU's globalist bureaucracy. 

President Aliyev criticised this EU policy, describing it as an attempt to draw dividing lines in the South Caucasus. In the context of the normalisation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan ties, the president reiterated that the key condition for peace is Armenia’s constitutional reform aimed at eliminating the territorial claims against Azerbaijan contained within it. While speaking about the reluctance of Yerevan to support the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, President Aliyev pointed to this, along with Armenia’s ongoing militarisation, as a troubling sign indicating the dominance of revanchist sentiments within the Armenian leadership. President Aliyev made this statement with utmost clarity. 

“We know that there are quite strong revanchist groups in Armenia. I would divide them in two: active revanchists, those who are responsible for 30 years occupation, and passive revanchists - today's government - which tries to demonstrate a so-called constructive approach, but in fact, lives with the same feelings of revanche and revenge. Nevertheless, political establishment of Armenia is not divided on the issue of Azerbaijan. It is consolidated. It's just a matter of vocabulary, matter of behavior and matter of tactics,” the president said.

In this way, the Azerbaijani leader also signaled that he does not believe the pseudo-constructive rhetoric of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the "real Armenia". Amid the lack of will for concrete actions, all of Pashinyan’s statements indeed appear to be a tactical maneuver.   However, the president made it clear that Baku is prepared for any outcome, and the Azerbaijani Armed Forces are ready to respond to any challenge.

The president emphasised that the threat of renewed military confrontation will persist as long as Armenia does not amend its constitution and demonstrate sincerity in its actions toward normalising relations with Azerbaijan. This certainly includes Baku’s demand for the dissolution of the Minsk Group. From the perspective of Azerbaijan's international positioning, perhaps the most significant remarks made by the president were about the Organisation of Turkic States. President Aliyev emphasised that the organisation should aim to become a key global player. 

Pointing, on one hand, to the strong military potential of Türkiye and Azerbaijan, and on the other hand, to the lack of mutual trust in traditional alliances such as the EU and NATO, President Aliyev stated “We need to be more active. We need to, maybe it’s the wrong word, to fill the gap, but we need to become the center of decision-making process in a vast area of Eurasia, at least.” Overall, President Aliyev’s address underscored Azerbaijan’s exceptional standing on the international stage, its proactive foreign policy, unwavering commitment to defending national interests, and the futility of attempts by third parties to impose their own rules on Baku.  

A clear indication of Azerbaijan’s growing international stature is the fact that Baku served as the venue for negotiations between Turkish and Israeli representatives aimed at normalizing relations. These diplomatic efforts were recognized by US President Donald Trump, who sent a letter to President Aliyev in appreciation. In the letter, Trump extended his congratulations to President Aliyev and the people of Azerbaijan on the occasion of Novruz, and expressed gratitude for Azerbaijan’s support and friendship toward Israel—effectively acknowledging Baku’s role in facilitating the talks between Tel Aviv and Ankara. 

This marks one of the first signs that Azerbaijan can expect a more balanced and constructive relationship with the new US administration. Meanwhile, the Antalya Diplomacy Forum has officially opened, with President Ilham Aliyev in attendance. On the sidelines of the event, he held a meeting with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the interim president of Syria. During the conversation, President Aliyev emphasized Azerbaijan’s readiness to contribute to Syria’s reconstruction efforts. The two leaders also discussed the potential for developing a trilateral cooperation format between Azerbaijan, Syria, and Türkiye. 

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

Amid ongoing fighting along the entire front line, diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict in Ukraine continue to unfold.   However, negotiations between the Russian and US sides do not always directly concern Ukraine. For instance, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, recently visited Washington to discuss the prospects of American investments in the Russian economy. Shortly after, American and Russian diplomats met in Istanbul to explore ways of normalising diplomatic relations. President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has recently arrived in St. Petersburg, where he was received by Vladimir Putin. According to Russian media reports, the conversation lasted over four hours.

Following the meeting, the Kremlin released a brief statement noting that the talks focused on aspects of the Ukrainian settlement. Although the previously mentioned meetings were pointedly framed as unrelated to Ukraine, it seems logical to assume that the topics discussed—most likely involving conditions for lifting US sanctions on Russia—are being used as bargaining chips, including in exchange for potential compromises by Moscow on the Ukrainian issue. The real question, however, is how far Washington is willing to go in defending Ukraine’s interests—or, more precisely, to what extent those interests still align with America’s own.  

MIDDLE EAST

Amid the ongoing war in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington. The very fact that this marks his second trip to the US capital in just a few months underscores the unprecedented challenges currently facing Israel. The conversation with Trump also touched on the escalating tensions with Türkiye. Trump refrained from offering unconditional support to Israel.

Instead, he expressed his admiration for President Erdoğan and offered to mediate in order to prevent the situation from spiraling into a full-blown conflict. Most importantly, he urged Netanyahu to exercise restraint and maintain a sense of prudence. Another important topic, namely the US-Iran standoff, also developed, following all the rules of Eastern diplomatic rhetoric. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian convinced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to soften his stance on negotiations with the US.

According to media reports, after a lengthy meeting, the supreme leader listened to the president's request and agreed to allow negotiations between Tehran and Washington, initially through intermediaries, and, if the outcome is satisfactory to Iran, direct talks afterward.

Pezeshkian also said that “his excellency has no opposition to investment by American investors in Iran,” referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “American investors: Come and invest.”

Pezeshkian also emphasized that Tehran is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and that the country's nuclear programme is peaceful and scientific in nature. “We are not after a nuclear bomb,” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a speech in Tehran. “You [in the West] have verified it 100 times. Do it 1,000 times again.” It seems that Tehran is trying to secure another four years of calm. The interesting question here is: Is Israel willing to give Iran a four-year grace period, or will it attempt to derail any negotiations between Washington and Tehran?