Biden‘s demand to lower conscription age could have dramatic consequences for Ukraine's birth rates

The Biden administration is urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to lower the military draft age from 25 to 18 to address troop shortages in Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia. However, lowering the draft age could exacerbate Ukraine’s already severe demographic challenges, including a declining population and alarmingly low birth rates.

Despite over a million Ukrainians actively engaged in the conflict, Ukraine has suffered heavy losses, including 43,000 soldiers, and estimates it needs 160,000 additional troops.

An article by the US Newsweek magazine reported, that while Ukraine’s current draft age is 25, recent legislation seeks to address manpower shortages. A proposed resolution would automatically register men aged 17 to 25 as conscripts without medical examinations. Additionally, bill 12076, under parliamentary review, would allow women meeting health and age criteria to be conscripted.

Zelenskyy had already lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 in April 2023 but has publicly rejected the U.S. proposal to lower it further. Zelenskyy emphasized that equipping and training existing brigades, rather than deploying younger soldiers, should be the priority, alongside securing advanced weapons and targeting Russian military capabilities.

Demographically, Ukraine faces severe challenges that make such proposals contentious. With the country’s population estimated to be at 35.6 million, down from 37.7 million last year, the World Health Organization projects a 15% population decline by 2050. Since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has lost 10 million people to deaths, displacement, and fertility issues. 

Birth rates have been particularly impacted, with deaths now triple the number of births. In the first half of 2024, births declined by 9% compared to the previous year. Compounding this decline are the displacement of local populations in territories illegally annexed by Russia and Russia’s plans to repopulate these areas with citizens from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Florence Bauer, the United Nations Population Fund’s regional director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, highlighted how these demographic shifts pose long-term risks. She told the publication that Ukraine’s birth rate, below one child per woman, is the lowest in Europe and is affected by instability, economic hardship, and the war. Female-headed households, which face disproportionate economic and caregiving burdens, report extreme livelihood needs, making family planning even more challenging. Allowing women to be conscripted, as outlined in bill 12076, could further strain birth rates, as women face disrupted access to healthcare, increased caregiving responsibilities, and heightened instability.

These demographic challenges have broader implications, including labor shortages, economic instability, and weakened social systems. Ukraine’s aging population and high levels of out-migration compound the problem, threatening its recovery and long-term development. Addressing these issues requires policies fostering gender equality, family-friendly work environments, and inclusive socioeconomic measures to support young families. Countries like Sweden serve as examples of how such policies can stabilize population trends.

Bauer emphasized that while achieving peace is vital for addressing these demographic crises, proactive measures to protect Ukraine’s human capital are also crucial during the ongoing conflict. Steps like improving healthcare access, bolstering socioeconomic stability, and creating opportunities for families can help mitigate the demographic decline and support Ukraine’s recovery and long-term future.

By Nazrin Sadigova