Record wave of Ukrainian strikes disrupts Russia’s fuel supplies

Russia is facing a second wave of fuel shortages after a record number of Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries forced drivers across the country to rethink when, where and how they can refuel.

Fuel supplies had begun to recover after Ukrainian attacks on crude-processing facilities eased in the second half of July. But the respite was short-lived. Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian refineries at least 21 times so far in August, the highest monthly total, according to a Bloomberg tally of public statements by Russian and Ukrainian authorities.

Shortages are now visible even in Moscow and the surrounding region, Russia’s largest and best-supplied fuel market. Residents are posting daily updates in community chats about stations with gasoline and the length of queues. Lines of 30 to 50 cars are no longer unusual in the capital, according to Moscow residents and posts in apartment-building chats.

Fuel rationing is in effect in dozens of regions, stretching from the Baltic coast deep into Siberia. One glamping site near the Black Sea even advertised on social media that it was providing guests with a canister filled with gasoline.

A station without a queue may simply have no fuel available, while stations with gasoline may charge prices many drivers are unwilling to pay. Despite the shortages, motorists are generally reluctant to pay about 100 rubles, or roughly $1.20, or more per liter at independent filling stations. At stations operated by major oil companies, which run their own refineries and have direct access to fuel, prices remain below 80 rubles per liter.

The renewed shortage is adding to the difficulties faced by more than 50 million Russian drivers and their families in the fifth year of the war launched by President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine has intensified its campaign against Russia’s oil-processing industry in an effort to bring the consequences of the war to the Russian population, weaken support for the military campaign and reduce Moscow’s hydrocarbon-export revenues.

Four of Russia’s 10 largest refineries have been attacked this month. These facilities were built to ensure reliable fuel supplies to the country’s most densely populated and industrialized regions.

Russia’s refinery output is now hovering near its lowest level in more than two decades, according to EA Analytics, a division of Energy Aspects Ltd. The consultancy estimates that Russian refineries processed slightly more than 3.8 million barrels of crude a day on average in August. During the summer, when demand rises because of holiday travel and the agricultural season, Russia has previously processed between 5.3 million and 5.5 million barrels a day.

Gasoline production and deliveries to the domestic market fell by almost 20% year-on-year during the first three weeks of August, according to a person familiar with the data. Diesel production dropped by more than 23% over the same period, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the figures are not public.

However, domestic diesel deliveries declined by only 3%, partly because Russia imposed a ban on most diesel exports this summer. Before Ukrainian attacks intensified, Russia was a major diesel exporter, accounting for about 10% of global supplies. Much of that fuel is now being retained domestically, helping keep diesel availability relatively stable.

EA Analytics expects refinery runs to rise slightly in September to almost 4.2 million barrels a day, “although downside risks to this remain if Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries continue at this rate,” said Louis Neave-Howes, an oil markets analyst at Energy Aspects.

The Russian government has already prohibited most gasoline exports through the end of January 2027 and is considering extending restrictions on diesel exports through September or potentially longer to ease domestic shortages.

Regional authorities are also preparing residents for fuel supplies to remain constrained after the summer holiday season.

“The situation remains tight,” Alexander Gusev, governor of the Voronezh region bordering Ukraine, said this week. “We see that the enemy is continuing to strike oil refineries.”

By Tamilla Hasanova