Is Japan trying to mend ties with China after Taiwan spat?

A delegation of Japanese politicians has travelled to Beijing this week in what observers say could be an attempt to improve relations with China amid one of the worst diplomatic rifts between the two countries in decades, according to Al Jazeera.

The delegation includes Gaku Hashimoto, a member of Japan’s House of Representatives and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as well as lawmakers from Komeito and the Centrist Reform Alliance.

The dispute began in November last year after Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could “constitute a survival-threatening situation” for Japan that would justify the use of force.

The remarks angered Beijing. The following day, China’s consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted on X: “We have no choice but cut off that dirty neck that has been lunged at us without hesitation”. The post was later deleted.

Tokyo protested and sought disciplinary action against Xue, but Beijing refused. China then warned its citizens against travelling to Japan and tightened trade restrictions.

This year, Beijing further restricted exports of dual-use goods and rare earth materials used in high-tech products.

Relations at a low point

The tensions are rooted in a long history of conflict. Japan seized Taiwan from China in 1895, occupied Manchuria in 1931 and launched a full-scale invasion of China six years later.

After Japan surrendered in 1945, the Republic of China took control of Taiwan. In 1949, after losing the Chinese Civil War, the ROC government relocated to Taipei. Beijing continues to claim Taiwan as its territory, although the People’s Republic of China has never governed the island.

Japan and China normalised diplomatic relations in 1972, with Tokyo ending official relations with Taiwan.

Relations have deteriorated sharply over the past year. China banned Japanese seafood in November and in January restricted exports of dual-use goods and rare earth minerals for defence or military purposes.

In February, Beijing placed 40 Japanese entities under restrictive trade measures and put another 20 companies on a watch list requiring additional licences.

China has also issued travel warnings discouraging its citizens from visiting Japan.

Shinichi Isa, a politician who previously served at the Japanese embassy in China, said ties had fallen to their lowest point since 1972. Earlier this month, he wrote on X: “Now all channels between officials and ministries have been cut off.”

Beijing’s Foreign Ministry on Friday urged Tokyo to take efforts to repair relations “seriously” and to “take concrete actions” to normalise ties.

Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, said bilateral relations “have dropped to their lowest in recent memory; communications have ground to a halt, and there is even more mistrust at both the elite and people-to-people level”.

Economic risks

Chinese arrivals in Japan fell from 715,700 in October 2025 to 330,000 in December, according to a Centre for Strategic and International Studies report. However, the economic impact was limited as visitors from Taiwan, South Korea, the US and Hong Kong helped offset the decline.

China’s rare earth restrictions are a greater concern. Beijing supplies about 80% of Japan’s rare earth imports and shipped no dysprosium or terbium oxide to Japan between November 2025 and May 2026.

The materials are used in high-performance magnets and various technological, nuclear energy and defence applications. Nissan and Suzuki have reported supply disruptions.

Masahiro Matsumura, a professor of international politics and national security at St Andrew’s University in Osaka, said the impact could eventually be managed through diversification.

“Over the medium and long run, the impact is likely managed through diversification, including rare earth issues, which is a focal point,” he said.

He added that Japan remained dependent on China for some materials, describing this as a “great headache” for the government and Japanese high-tech companies.

Questions over US support

Japan continues to rely on the United States as its key ally, but experts say concerns are growing as Washington shifts military assets from Asia to the Middle East.

Last week, the US moved its last aircraft carrier in Asia from Japan to the Middle East. Earlier this year, Washington also moved parts of its THAAD missile defence system from South Korea for use against Iran.

William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said the redeployments weaken US power projection in Asia and its ability to counter China.

A possible opening

It remains unclear whether the Japanese delegation’s visit will lead to a major improvement, but experts see it as a positive sign.

Loh called the visit a “modest start” to restoring dialogue, despite low expectations for a breakthrough.

Matsumura cautioned that lawmakers involved in what he called “parliamentarian caucus diplomacy” “are not necessarily aligned” with the Takaichi administration’s policy lines.

“Nor is the ruling party itself of one mind. Even in the LDP, there is a latent struggle between anti-China/pro-US and pro-China/anti-US,” he said.

The delegation’s visit may therefore say less about Takaichi’s position than about a growing desire in Tokyo to reopen a channel with Beijing.

By Aghakazim Guliyev