Bild: Germany prepares scenario of possible war between Russia, NATO

The German newspaper Bild has stated that the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) have been preparing for a hybrid Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank that may take place in February 2024.

Escalation between NATO and Russia may take place as early as February 2024, Bild reports, citing a secret Bundeswehr document,

In a classified document (Top Secret – For Official Use Only), the German Federal Ministry of Defence outlines a potential "Path to Conflict" between Russia and NATO is detailed. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025. 

Bild outlines the scenario from the document but refrains from disclosing all the information regarding the size and movement of NATO forces due to security considerations.

The Bundeswehr's scenario, Alliance Defence 2025, begins in February 2024. Russia initiates another wave of mobilisation and conscripts an additional 200,000 individuals into the army. After that, the Kremlin launches a spring offensive in Ukraine, pushing the Ukrainian army back by June.

Russia's at first covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West begins in July. Cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are anticipated, primarily in the Baltic states. Clashes occur, which Russia uses as an excuse to initiate large-scale military exercises on its territory and in Belarus.

According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. From December 2024, an artificially induced "border conflict" and "clashes with numerous casualties" unfold in the vicinity of the Suwałki Gap (Suwalki Corridor).

At a moment when the United States may be without a leader for several weeks after the elections, Russia, with the support of Belarus, repeats the 2014 invasion of Ukraine but on NATO territory. In May 2025, NATO decides on containment measures, and on D-Day, NATO deploys 300,000 military personnel to the eastern flank, including 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr.

The scenario ends 30 days after D-Day. Whether NATO will restrain Russia remains an open question.

The Western opinion on the war in Ukraine has been moving towards thinking that Russia could win the war and Ukraine could lose additional territories and even its sovereignty, in which case NATO would be defeated and the consequences would be felt around the world.