Bitcoin surges 6% despite risk-off mood in US markets

Bitcoin jumped more than 6% on March 2 during the U.S. market open, briefly threatening the $70,000 mark, despite a broader macro environment signalling risk-off sentiment.

Oil prices surged on escalating tensions in the Middle East, with U.S. crude climbing roughly 7.6% to $72 per barrel and Brent rising about 8.6% to $79, driven by tanker disruptions and supply concerns. Equities opened sharply lower, though the S&P 500 has since recovered to near flat levels, while the U.S. dollar remained firm. Typically, such conditions weigh on high-beta assets like cryptocurrencies.

However, Bitcoin defied the trend. Data from Coinglass shows around $423 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, split almost evenly between longs ($221 million) and shorts ($203 million). This indicates that the surge was not the result of a one-sided short squeeze, but rather balanced market activity.

Analysts suggest the move was largely driven by market mechanics. Institutional liquidity and U.S.-hours venues resumed trading after the weekend, helping to pull spot-market dislocations back into alignment. The CME premium spike also played a role, reflecting renewed flows through institutional channels rather than purely retail-driven buying.

European markets fell, while defense and energy stocks outperformed. Natural gas prices soared nearly 50%, further highlighting risk-off positioning in traditional assets.

The divergence of Bitcoin from broader risk-off trends raises questions about how institutional trading and the ETF-era market structure influence crypto price movements. Traders point to the reopening of CME and ETF hedging operations as a key factor, helping to explain BTC’s marginal buying in a session that otherwise favoured risk reduction.