BRICS summit opens under shadow of complex wars, competing interests

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is welcoming world leaders to New Delhi with a smile ahead of this year's BRICS summit, but behind the diplomatic handshakes and carefully staged meetings lies a far more nuanced picture, with the expanded economic bloc increasingly plagued by the consequences of ongoing wars, territorial disputes and competing strategic interests.

The two-day summit, taking place on September 12 and 13, is officially centred on building resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability. Yet the gathering is being held against the backdrop of the war involving Iran, the continuing conflict in Ukraine, strained relations between China and India and growing tensions between some of the bloc's newer members. With BRICS now comprising 11 full members, reaching agreement on major geopolitical issues has become considerably more complex.

Iran is among the countries arriving at the summit with particularly strong expectations, as highlighted in an analysis by Al Jazeera. Tehran has called on BRICS to condemn the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, placing the grouping under pressure to take a position on a conflict in which other members have very different interests.

The United Arab Emirates, another relatively recent addition to BRICS, finds itself on the opposite side of that divide. After Iranian attacks against the UAE during the conflict, Abu Dhabi suspended trade and financial transactions with Tehran in August, creating an especially awkward situation for a bloc that operates largely through consensus. 

The dispute is not simply political as the war has also disrupted energy markets and trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important routes for oil shipments, adding an economic dimension to the divisions within BRICS. For countries heavily dependent on energy imports and international shipping, keeping trade routes open is a far more immediate concern than taking a clear side in the conflict. 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's participation will therefore put the Middle East conflict high on the summit agenda, particularly as his visit to India is his first as Iran's president. The difficulty of reaching common ground was already evident earlier this year, when BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi failed to issue a joint statement after members could not agree on the wording concerning the Middle East. 

The UAE is expected to be represented by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, while Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi are also due to attend. Their presence adds further complexity to discussions of the Middle East, given the different positions and interests of the Arab states toward Iran and the wider conflict.

Indian foreign policy course

India itself has tried to maintain room for manoeuvre. New Delhi has traditionally maintained relations with both Iran and Israel, while at the same time developing an increasingly important strategic relationship with Washington. That balancing act has become more difficult as the conflict has spread across the region, forcing India to consider both its diplomatic relationships and the potential consequences for energy supplies and trade.

China's President Xi Jinping is expected to arrive on the first day of the summit, marking his first visit to India since 2019 and providing perhaps the most visible sign of a cautious improvement in relations between the two Asian powers. The relationship deteriorated sharply after the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash along their disputed Himalayan border, in which at least 20 Indian soldiers were killed and Chinese forces also suffered casualties. 

Although the two countries have since taken steps to reduce military tensions along the Line of Actual Control, their territorial dispute has not been resolved. New Delhi and Beijing continue to view each other with considerable strategic suspicion, while competing over influence in Asia, trade and investment. A fresh military standoff was also reported along the border earlier this year, underscoring how fragile the thaw remains.

Xi's visit is therefore about more than BRICS. For Modi, it offers an opportunity to stabilise a relationship that remains economically important but strategically difficult, while Beijing has its own interest in ensuring that BRICS remains an effective platform at a time when tensions with Washington are also rising. The two leaders are expected to discuss efforts to consolidate the recent improvement in bilateral ties and expand economic engagement.

The war in Ukraine presents another major fault line. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has already arrived in New Delhi, and India continues to maintain close economic and strategic ties with Moscow despite pressure from Western governments over its purchases of Russian energy.

India has repeatedly called for the Ukraine war to end through diplomacy, while stopping short of joining Western sanctions against Russia. New Delhi has instead used its relationship with Moscow to secure energy supplies, a policy that has become particularly important as disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict have added further pressure to global energy markets. India remains one of Russia's largest energy customers, with Russian oil accounting for a record share of Indian imports earlier this year. 

At the same time, India has sought to strengthen its engagement with Ukraine. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Kyiv this month, during which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was “grateful to India for its commitment to ending this unjust war.” The visit highlighted New Delhi's effort to maintain communication with both sides rather than becoming fully aligned with either camp.

Delicate task of conserving counterweight position

These competing relationships illustrate the broader challenge facing BRICS. The organisation was established in 2009 as a forum for major emerging economies seeking greater influence in international institutions traditionally dominated by Western powers. It initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India and China before South Africa joined, turning BRIC into BRICS.

The group expanded substantially from 2024, when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were admitted, followed by Indonesia in January 2025. 

BRICS has also created a wider circle of partner countries. Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam joined as partner countries in 2025, while Azerbaijan announced in August 2024 that it had applied for full membership.

The expansion has dramatically increased BRICS' global weight, with the 11-member grouping now representing nearly half of the world's population and a substantial share of global economic output. One of its key priorities now lies in navigating some members' sharply different foreign-policy interests into the same forum. 

By Nazrin Sadigova