Can dormant NATO thrive without US leadership? Europe’s security dilemma

In their article "Planning for a Post-American NATO," authors Phillips O’Brien and Edward Stringer critique a proposal for a "dormant NATO," which suggests that the US should withdraw its ground forces from Europe, shifting the defense burden to European nations.

The authors argue that such a shift could lead to the collapse of the alliance, as incompatible security outlooks among European countries might resurface, resulting in a fragmented and ineffective security structure, according to The Foreign Policy article.

O’Brien and Stringer contend that NATO could endure a US withdrawal if European nations were to reorganize their leadership, potentially placing an eastern European country like Poland at the helm, and creating a unified nuclear deterrent. However, the authors overlook the deep-rooted differences in strategic interests across Europe, which stem from geographical, cultural, and historical factors. They argue that these divisions are not merely the result of poor planning but reflect a reality that is unlikely to change without significant American support.

The article posits that the shared European security framework has been sustained primarily through American hegemony, which has allowed European nations to underinvest in their own defense capabilities. Without the United States, the authors suggest, the likelihood of a coherent European defense strategy diminishes significantly, as historical rivalries and differing threat perceptions would hinder collaboration. The authors also criticize O’Brien and Stringer’s belief that European powers can unify under a singular foreign policy, highlighting that the Pax Americana has been crucial in maintaining peace among historically competing nations.

Instead of envisioning a fully autonomous European defense structure, the article advocates for a moderate approach—maintaining US involvement while allowing European states to assume greater responsibility for their security. This "dormant NATO" concept would entail the US providing a nuclear umbrella and naval support while enabling European countries to enhance their military capabilities and coordination.

In summary, the article argues that a pragmatic balance is essential for European security, where the US serves as an offshore balancer rather than a primary guarantor, thus promoting a fairer distribution of defense responsibilities among NATO members. By fostering increased investment in defense among European nations, the proposal aims to create a more sustainable and effective security alliance, ultimately benefiting all parties involved.

By Vugar Khalilov