China removes defense minister after two-month absence

Following months of speculations of the whereabouts of China's defense minister, who seemingly disappeared from public life in August 2023, Beijing has now officially confirmed his removal from his post. The Breaking Defence journal has analyzed what this change could mean for China's external and political agenda, seeing as a similar fate was already shared by the former foreign minister. Caliber.Az reprints this article. 

"China has officially removed its defense minister, state media reported today, the latest high-level shake-up for the Asian giant’s military and diplomatic corps. It’s also a move a Pentagon official indicated could lead to opportunities for improved military-to-military relations between Beijing and Washington.

The removal of Li Shangfu, announced on state-owned CCTV, was not explained. He has not been seen in public since late August, leading most experts to conclude he was headed the same direction as the last Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang. Qin vanished from sight as well and was formally removed in July after weeks of speculation.

Li’s descent was complete as he was also reportedly removed from the Central Military Commission, which is much more powerful than the defense ministry. Prior to Li’s official departure, there were clear signs of turmoil in the Chinese military, with several top leaders of the Rocket Force having been drummed out.

The report by CCTV came just hours after a Pentagon official revealed the US had accepted a Chinese invitation to the Beijing Xiangshan Forum to be held next week in Beijing. Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, was asked during a talk at the Atlantic Council in Washington on Monday about Li’s disappearance — news had not come out yet that he’d been formally replaced — and whether a new defense minister could lead to more engagement between the militaries.

'Yes, I’ll say we did receive an invitation to the Xiangshan forum, we have accepted that, and we’re going to send participants at a level that’s consistent with what we’ve done in the past', Chase said. 'And in terms of hopefully, kind of kick-starting some of the military to military engagements, yes, I’m hopeful that we’ll have an opportunity to do that in the coming months'.

China Daily confirmed the visits and said the US delegation would be headed by Cynthia Xanthi Carras, described as a 'top official' on China in policy at the Pentagon. Carras appears to have kept a low public profile, but has been reported as an attendee at other Indo-Pacific events as a senior DoD official.

China sells the conference, sponsored by the China Association for Military Science, as its version of the much-better attended Shangri La Dialogue, held in Singapore. The Xiangshan website says, 'Official delegates of more than 40 countries and international organizations and renowned experts and scholars at home and abroad have already confirmed their attendance'.

The conference will presumably be a time for now-rare military-to-military discussions between the US and China. Last week the Pentagon called out Chinese forces for what it said were scores of 'dangerous' incidents caused by its air force over the past two years. Previously DoD officials, up to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, complained that their Chinese counterparts were no longer picking up the phone when they attempted to reach out on the deconfliction hotline.

But there have been signs of the ice melting. Last month the Pentagon announced US defense officials had held a 'working level meeting' with Chinese officials on cyber issues. Also, China’s new foreign minister, Wang Yi will visit the United States from Thursday to Saturday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said today".