China rethinks its North Korea strategy as Russia deepens ties with Pyongyang

China is seeking to reshape its relationship with North Korea as Pyongyang becomes more assertive, strengthens military ties with Russia and maintains its nuclear weapons programme, according to an analysis published by Foreign Affairs.

Zheng Jiyong, professor and dean of the Institute of Regional Studies at Tianjin Foreign Studies University, argues that Beijing is increasingly concerned that North Korea's actions could destabilise Northeast Asia and strengthen military cooperation between the United States, South Korea and Japan.

The analysis says China's traditional approach to Pyongyang, based largely on historical ties, political friendship and informal coordination, is becoming inadequate. Beijing now wants more structured communication with North Korea to improve its ability to anticipate and manage potential crises.

China remains North Korea's most important economic partner. According to Zheng, Beijing accounts for more than 70 per cent of North Korea's foreign trade and supplies about 60 per cent of its food and 75 per cent of its consumer goods. China also provides substantial quantities of petroleum, grain and fertiliser.

However, North Korea's growing relationship with Russia has reduced its dependence on China.

Under a comprehensive strategic partnership signed in June 2024, Moscow has expanded its support for Pyongyang, including security guarantees, military technology, energy supplies and assistance in circumventing sanctions. North Korea, meanwhile, has supplied Russia with ammunition and troops for its war in Ukraine, according to the analysis.

This emerging relationship has given Pyongyang greater room to manoeuvre between Beijing and Moscow. Zheng describes the arrangement as a three-way strategy in which North Korea relies on China for economic stability, Russia for security support and tensions with the United States to justify maintaining its nuclear deterrent.

For Beijing, this creates several risks. Deeper North Korean-Russian military cooperation could encourage Japan and South Korea to strengthen their security partnerships with Washington, including intelligence sharing, joint exercises and greater weapons integration.

China fears that such developments could eventually produce a stronger regional military bloc that would put pressure on Beijing not only around the Korean Peninsula but also in other strategic areas, including the Taiwan Strait.

The analysis argues that Beijing therefore needs to prioritise crisis prevention rather than make denuclearisation an immediate condition for engagement. Although China remains opposed to North Korea's nuclear status, Zheng says an immediate denuclearisation process is increasingly unrealistic.

Instead, Beijing is seeking more emergency communication channels, regular diplomatic and security consultations, and mechanisms for notifying China about missile tests and incidents along the border.

Recent high-level contacts indicate that this approach is already taking shape. Chinese officials have met Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, while North Korea's premier has travelled to China for talks with President Xi Jinping.

Beijing is also considering bringing North Korea into wider regional frameworks, including the Greater Tumen Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

According to Zheng, China's economic leverage could also become a tool for influencing Pyongyang's behaviour. Beijing could condition increased humanitarian assistance, trade, energy supplies and infrastructure cooperation on North Korea exercising greater military restraint.

The broader objective, the analysis concludes, is not to abandon denuclearisation but to prevent a crisis that could destabilise China's neighbourhood and pull Beijing into confrontation with Washington.

The June meeting between Xi and Kim in Pyongyang may therefore mark the beginning of a more structured relationship in which China offers greater economic and political support in return for clearer limits on North Korean military behaviour.

By Aghakazim Guliyev