China, Russia to fill vacuum of US military withdrawal from Niger Analysis by Army Technology

Army Technology carries an article by Richard Thomas arguing that in the wake of the US departure from Niger, two formidable players on the global stage, China and Russia, are poised to capitalize on the perceived vacuum left by the US retreat. Caliber.Az reprints the piece.

The US will lose a key defence presence in the heart of Africa, after being forced to withdraw its forces from Niger following the failure of bilateral negotiations on the continuation of security cooperation in the wake of a military coup in July last year.

The coup is the fifth since the country gained independence from France, with the others occurring in 1974, 1996, 1999, and 2010, and a failed military takeover in 2019. However, Washington continued to prevaricate over how to classify the event, taking nearly two-and-a-half months to come to the same conclusion as its allies in Europe and Africa.

Announcing at the end of April 2024 the intention to withdraw all military personnel from Niger, the US State Department said that “amid discussion since July 2023”, US negotiators had been “unable to reach an understanding” with the Niger’s National Council for Safeguarding the Homeland (CNSP) to continue security cooperation.

The withdrawal of US forces from Niger would be “orderly and responsible”, US State Department officials said at the time.

With annual trade between the US and Niger totalling $1.6trn according to the US embassy in Niamey, the need to continue to maintain good relations with the current junta will be important in an economic context. However, the absence of a military presence in the country, outside of embassy security requirements, will lessen the US’ influence.

The obvious winners in the US decision to pull its forces from Niger will be China and Russia, who will move to fill the vacuum without compunction given their superior ability to pursue policies of realpolitik instead of principle-based diplomacy.

Although Niger relies heavily on agriculture and oil for its national economy, it also has resources of the highest-grade uranium available in Africa, and thus in great demand by the world’s nuclear powers.

According to the World Nuclear Association, uranium mining in Niger accounts for about 5% of the world’s output. China has specifically sought to invest heavily in the country in recent years as it looks to expand its supply of critical materials and impose its diplomatic perspective on regions.

Russia maintains a growing military presence in Niger and was widely reported to now be using the same military area of Niamey’s International Airport as the dwindling number of US forces (this is not the same location as Niger Air Base 201, which is located at Agadez, several hundred kilometres northeast of the capital).