"Despite differences, Pashinyan understands Armenia's dependence on Russia" Expert Mitrakhovich's opinion on Caliber.Az

This week Nikol Pashinyan visited Russia, where he spent two days with Vladimir Putin within the framework of two events: the EAEU meeting and the informal CIS summit. Some believe that the Kremlin has succeeded in "breaking" Pashinyan and bringing him back into the mainstream of bilateral cooperation, while others believe that this is just a game played by Yerevan that does not alter Armenia's mood for a major expansion of ties with the West.

Has Pashinyan "reversed" his pro-Western course, or he will continue to try to play a double game?

According to the Russian political scientist Stanislav Mitrakhovich, the most likely thing we are dealing with here is the expression "Politics is the art of the possible".

"Ideological orientation, the desire to show that one differs from one's real self, and simply the desire to impress business partners - all this motivates and guides Pashinyan. There are also objective constraints in security, economic and other spheres. That's why politicians are sometimes forced to rethink what they've decided. This is also true of Pashinyan, who understands that there are objective factors that force him to maintain relations with Russia and that he cannot completely reorient himself towards Western countries. This includes engaging in a full-fledged dialogue with Washington and Brussels. Armenia still depends on Russia to make many decisions, and Pashinyan has to accept this, even if it means going beyond his ideological framework. I do not exclude that he will try to restore some elements of relations with Russia as a diversion.

As for Russia, due to its political weight, it tries to play with everyone at the same time. This means that Russia is ready to negotiate with anyone, even with countries like Ukraine," the political analyst notes.

According to him, Russia has listened carefully to Pashinyan and is going to respond.

"There may be talks with Armenia about issues connected with slowing down the Western vector or, conversely, about Russian bases or even withdrawal from the CSTO and the EAEU. All this is very likely, but at the same time, Moscow understands that it is not worth breaking off relations with Armenia immediately, because Pashinyan may have successors tomorrow, or simply someone to replace him as prime minister. Such decisions are not in the spirit of a well-thought-out course for a country like Russia. Look at the United States, which, even with its most ardent opponents, maintains scenarios in which it can return to the American orbit. Russia, understandably, has less weight than the US, but the strategies are similar," Mitrakhovich noted.

In any case, in his opinion, Armenia under Pashinyan is capable of taking irrational steps, leaving alliances and blocs. Moscow admits the scenario in which Pashinyan will leave the CSTO and the EAEU and has therefore worked out its strategy for such an eventuality.

"But probably the very fact that Putin talked to Pashinyan shows that the Armenian Prime Minister has not yet made such a decision. And Russia itself is not going to be proactive and say: if you want to leave the CSTO and the EAEU, then leave.

Russia's approach is that in order not to lose the channel of communication with a certain politician or with those who will replace him, it is not necessary to remove someone from the dialogue mode. Here's a good example to answer the question: is negotiating between Russia and Zelenskyy possible? From Moscow's point of view, negotiations are possible and there is something to talk about. At the same time, Zelenskyy himself has obtained a decision that prohibits him from negotiations with Russia, which is quite illogical," the pundit summed up.