Dreams of a "weeping Bolshevik" to revive the USSR Is there a room for nostalgia?

The USSR could be recreated on new principles, similar to those of the European Union, said Nikolai Ryzhkov, former chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers. It should be noted that December 30 marks the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Soviet Union.

According to Ryzhkov, it is impossible to recreate the Soviet Union in the form in which it existed. But it is possible to try to make it close to a European union, "where there is a basis - the European Union and its bodies."

"Based on the principle of the EU, I think, a union of states in the post-Soviet space could be established again, under new conditions," Ryzhkov said.

However, the former format of the existence of the USSR should not be copied. The state is a living organism, which develops, grows old, and gets sick. Therefore, we can't recreate the Soviet Union "in the image and likeness of 1922". Everything must develop and move, he added.

I wonder why the former premier of the USSR suddenly launched into this speculation. Does anyone in Russia still seriously believe that today there is a single post-Soviet nation that considers the idea of any reunification with it to be sensible? Especially against the background of what is now happening in Ukraine. What would have to happen for former Soviet republics to start thinking about the possibility of losing even a small part of their independence in favour of Moscow? Can today's Russia serve them in this sense as a model of progress in the field of economy, social structure, and foreign policy?

Caliber.Az addressed these questions to well-known international experts.

American analyst Samson Katzman noted that, apparently, Nikolai Ryzhkov could not overlook the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Soviet Union. Nostalgia took over.

"I'd like to note that it was Vladimir Putin's nostalgia for a union state/renewed Russian empire that was the trigger for the horrible war that is taking place before our eyes. It was hard to think of a more inopportune moment to discuss the idea of establishing the Eurasian space," says the expert. - Now, as to the idea itself. On what basis will the post-Soviet states be grouped around Russia? The principle of 'soft power' has been completely lost. And if a hundred years ago the consolidating narrative was social justice, equality, and so on, now it is a pure imperial ruthless great-power fist. Putin's recent statements about the benefits of acquiring (militarily) new territories leave no doubt about this. It is hard to believe that this could be an incentive for unification. At the same time, there is a possibility that the Russian leadership may take the path of a forcible takeover of neighbouring states".

According to Katzman, it makes sense to raise another question - how economically self-sufficient are Russia's neighboring states, and will they be able to build their economies so that they do not become politically dependent on Russia?

"It seems that this is what these countries will focus their efforts on. They have different starting conditions. Azerbaijan, in terms of the security of hydrocarbons, is better than, say, Ukraine. But the movement will be exactly in that direction - building the economies, excluding vassal dependence on imperial Russia. And I assume that there will be viable and sustainable economic configurations - Ukraine and Moldova oriented and integrated into the EU, South Caucasus oriented and partly oriented towards Türkiye and partly towards Russia, and Central Asian countries oriented towards China, Türkiye and Russia. In such a scenario, Russia's imperial dominant influence will be limited," the US analyst believes.

Sergei Zhavoronkov, Russian political scientist, co-chairman of the Democratic Choice political party, and senior expert at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Development in Moscow, says that Russia cannot be an example of an economically successful country with a per capita GDP of $11,200 (compared to $69,000 in the United States and $50,000 in Germany). But there are poor Central Asian countries where per capita GDP is even lower by an order of magnitude: Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. It may seem that Russia is doing well there, but that is from their initial low level.

"However, even if they do not want to join Russia physically, they would just like to have an opportunity to work here. Besides, there is a factor of personal interests of leaders - as they say, better be the head of a dog, than the tail of a lion. No one is willing to be part of Russia on the rights of a province.

And there is already a counterpart to the EU - the EAEU, consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. Since Russia is a net exporter to these countries, the lack of customs duties harms it; the union should be between roughly equal countries; in this respect, the EU - with a huge difference in per capita GDP - is not the best model either, and it is no coincidence that wealthier Britain left it, while Iceland and Switzerland withdrew their applications for accession.

It is possible to talk about some kind of political alliance based on shared values and a common legal space, but not an economic one. Well as to Nikolai Ivanovich, who had the nickname 'the weeping Bolshevik' in the USSR, his age, he is 93 years old,  should be taken into account. Not everyone at that age retains a sane view of the situation," Zhavoronkov said.