Ethiopia's ambitions heighten tensions with Somalia

The Horn of Africa stands on the brink of a potential war that could destabilize not only the region but also have far-reaching consequences for global security.

Trouble has horns to grasp but no tails to restrain, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

This Somali proverb, which implies that disasters can sometimes be anticipated and potentially avoided but are difficult to control once they occur, seems particularly relevant for East Africa at the moment. Trouble has indeed arrived. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia's expansionist ambitions and reckless plans have brought the Horn of Africa to the brink of a conflict that could threaten the region and have global repercussions. It is crucial to intervene before it is too late. The spark for this potential conflict is Mr. Abiy’s fixation on transforming Ethiopia into a coastal nation.

Last year, he stated that Ethiopia could not remain landlocked and must gain access to the sea, whether through negotiation or by force. Given its weakened state among the five coastal nations bordering Ethiopia, Somalia emerged as a likely target. On January 1, Mr. Abiy signed a memorandum of understanding with the president of Somaliland, a self-proclaimed breakaway region in northwestern Somalia. In exchange for Ethiopia's formal recognition of Somaliland, Ethiopia would obtain a 12-mile naval base on the Gulf of Aden, thereby achieving Mr. Abiy’s objective of gaining a coastline. 

This move was a blatant violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, reminiscent of Ethiopia’s past interventions in Somalia. Somalia swiftly rejected the memorandum and launched a diplomatic campaign, informing regional and international powers that Ethiopia was attempting to seize Somali territory through illegal actions. The United Nations, the African Union, the United States, and the European Union all supported Somalia’s stance, underscoring the importance of respecting established borders and national sovereignty. Despite international pressure, particularly from the Biden administration, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia remains steadfast in his ambitions.

He appears to think this is the opportune time to implement his plans, given that Somalia is preoccupied with an extremist insurgency and the US government is distracted by elections and conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. Additionally, Abiy seems to be banking on a possible victory for Donald Trump, who he believes might either support his actions or remain indifferent. Tensions, simmering for much of the year, have escalated recently. In June, Ethiopia twice sent troops into Somalia, prompting Somalia to lodge complaints with the United Nations Security Council. In July, a Somali militia seized two truckloads of weapons and ammunition from Ethiopia, indicating that arms were being sent into the country. In response, Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops from the African peacekeeping mission within its borders. In a bold move, it also approved a defense pact with Egypt in July, adding to a similar agreement with Türkiye earlier in the year. 

Türkiye has attempted to mediate but has yet to find a resolution. With both sides at a stalemate, the region is a ticking time bomb. A war would be catastrophic. It would involve rival nations with substantial military capabilities, ethnic groups, religious factions, and international allies, leading to widespread bloodshed and chaos in both countries. Somalia, which is still recovering from a devastating 30-year civil war, would be severely impacted. Ethiopia, already dealing with multiple internal conflicts in the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions and facing tensions on its Eritrean and Sudanese borders, could face a collapse if it opens another front stretching thousands of miles. The region, already destabilized by the war in Sudan, would become even more volatile. 

The conflict could draw in Red Sea nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti, and Eritrea, all of whom view the Red Sea as crucial to their national security. The United States, China, and several European countries already have military presences in the Red Sea, while nations like Türkiye, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia have recently become involved. The area could quickly become a dangerous battleground for global and regional powers. 

Despite its fragility, East Africa is crucial for international trade and security. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are vital routes connecting Asia with Europe and the Americas, while the Horn of Africa serves as Asia’s gateway to Africa. A war in this region would disrupt key maritime routes, threatening global trade. Even more concerning, it could revive Islamic extremist groups like Al-Shabaab, which has already claimed to have recruited thousands of young Somalis to fight against Ethiopia. An unstable East Africa poses a global threat. Time is running out, as a recent mediation effort has failed. 

To prevent the region from descending into a catastrophic conflict, the global community — led by the United States — must make it clear to Mr. Abiy that his expansionist aims will not be accepted. Ethiopia, like any other landlocked country, should seek access to the sea through cooperation and economic integration, not through deals with separatists. The US, which has invested heavily in the region, should also pressure East African leaders to encourage dialogue and work to reconcile Somalia and Somaliland. This will not be an easy task.

However, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are too crucial to become a new war zone, and East Africa is too fragile for reckless pursuits. The world must confront this crisis head-on. Once it escalates, it will be beyond control.